Reading RHI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RHI free→Reading RHI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RHI free→NYSEIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 19% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. If RHI cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $32.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $32 RHI trades at 25× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median. Our $40 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 20% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.06x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.25 → $0.25 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 9 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 27% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$230.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$442.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,622.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Ongoing growth in talent solutions shows demand is coming back in staffing services. This can raise overall revenue.
Confirms:Talent solutions revenue grows for three months in a row.
Disproves:Talent solutions revenue drops or stays the same, showing no growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RHI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. At the annual meeting of stockholders of Robert Half Inc. (the “Company”) held on May 13, 2026 and described under
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Human Resource & Employment Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RHI Robert Half | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ADP Automatic Data Processing | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | elevated |
PAYX Paychex | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PAYC Paycom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PCTY Paylocity | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Emphasize revenue growth through talent solutions and consulting services.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Enhance operational efficiency to improve cash flow from operations.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims impact hiring trends, which affect Robert Half's business. Higher claims could signal a slowdown.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims are below 200,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims are above 300,000.
Why it matters: A rebound in sector growth could benefit Robert Half. It indicates a broader recovery in the market.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up again, going above 5%.
Confirms the other:Sector growth keeps slowing down, dropping below 3%.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means improved efficiency and financial health. This helps keep dividends.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations shows a positive trend, increasing by more than 10% compared to Q1.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations drops more. This worsens the current mixed status.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth shows a recovery after recent drops. Investors want to see demand return.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth shows a positive change compared to Q1, exceeding 0%.
Disproves:Q2 revenue continues to decline year over year, worse than -4%.
Why it matters: Maintaining dividends shows financial health. Cuts could signal trouble.
Confirms:A dividend payment is announced. It matches or is higher than before.
Disproves:A dividend cut or suspension is announced.
Why it matters: Inflation affects hiring and spending. A lower CPI could boost Robert Half's outlook.
Confirms:CPI reported below 2% year over year.
Disproves:CPI reported above 4% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Robert Half Inc. issued a press release reporting earnings for the first fiscal quarter of 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The foregoing information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and shall not be incorporated by ref…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Amended and Restated Severance Agreement On April 20, 2026, the Company entered into amended and restated severance agreements with its Named Executive Officers, M. Keith Waddell, Michael C. Buckley, Paul F. Gentzkow, Joseph A. Tarantino, and Harold M. Messmer. The amendments eliminate existing provisions that provided severance benefits upon a vol…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, Robert Half Inc. issued a press release reporting earnings for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The foregoing information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and shall not be incorporated by…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 22, 2025, Robert Half Inc. issued a press release reporting earnings for the third fiscal quarter of 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The foregoing information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and shall not be incorporated by r…