Reading TBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TBI free→Reading TBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TBI free→NYSEIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with TBI trading below typical compared to sector peers. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.86x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.03 → $-0.10 (-433.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$224.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$536.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,690.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If competitors like Caterpillar or GE improve their RFP status, TrueBlue may face more pressure.
Confirms:Competitors report strong RFP status. This means more demand in the sector.
Disproves:Competitors have weak RFP status. This suggests demand pressures are still the same.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TBI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, TrueBlue, Inc. (the “company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) reporting its financial results for the first quarter ended March 29, 2026, and certain outlook information for the second quarter and fiscal year 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and the contents of which are incorporated herein by this reference. Also attached to this report as Exhibit 99.2 is a slide presentation relating to the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Human Resource & Employment Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TBI TrueBlue, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 10 of 100 | — | high |
ADP Automatic Data Processing | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | elevated |
PAYX Paychex | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PAYC Paycom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PCTY Paylocity | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
TrueBlue is prioritizing mergers and acquisitions to drive growth.
TrueBlue aims to improve its earnings performance following recent misses.
TrueBlue is adjusting its capital allocation strategy, including rights modifications.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector grows again, it could help TrueBlue's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is over 5% from last year. This shows a good trend.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is under 5% from last year. This shows ongoing weakness.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information set forth in
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. On May 6, 2026, TrueBlue, Inc. (the “Company”) and Computershare Trust Company, N.A. (the “Rights Agent”) entered into the First Amendment to Rights Agreement (the “Amendment”), amending the Rights Agreement, dated as of May 14, 2025, between the Company and the Rights Agent (the “Rights Agreement”). The Amendment changes the final expiration date of the Rights (as defined in the Rights Agreement) from the close of business (as defined in t…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 10, 2026, TrueBlue, Inc. (“ TrueBlue ”) entered into a Cooperation Agreement (the “ Cooperation Agreement ”), by and between TrueBlue, Eric H. Su (“ Mr. Su ”), EHS Management LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“ EHS Management ”), and EHS Azure Opportunity Fund LP, a Delaware limited partnership (together with Mr. Su and EHS Management, “ EHS ”). Pursuant to the Cooperation Agreement, the Board of Directors of TrueBlue (the “ Board…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026, TrueBlue, Inc. (the “company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) reporting its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 28, 2025, and certain outlook information for the first quarter and fiscal year 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and the contents of which are incorporated herein by this reference. Also attached to this report as Exhibit 99.2 is a slide presentation relatin…