Insperity (NSP)

NYSEIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$54.44+1.80%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Insperity’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.69B
EPS	—	0.254
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	6.91B
EPS	—	2.114
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	7.2B
EPS	—	2.698

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve cash flow from operations	A primary condition in Insperity's published investment case. The stated target is positive cash flow from operations sustained.	Intact	cash flow from operations remains negative or volatile	Cash from operations: $129M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: positive cash flow from operations sustained. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026129,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Cash from operations showed high volatility, ranging from -$79M in 2025-Q2 to a peak of $255M in 2025-Q4, then $48M in 2026-Q2. Despite management focus, cash flow remains inconsistent, indicating limited progress on improving cash from operations. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain dividend payout at $0.6 per share	The company maintains a stable dividend of $0.6 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.6	Dividend per share: $0.60 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.6 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20260.6 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d9f92ac5-5e4c-41f1-911c-3d8bcb8ac39d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated or implied in 5 of last 5 quarters by consistent dividend payments. Dividend per share remained steady at $0.60 from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q2, demonstrating management's commitment to maintain dividend payout. The trajectory is stable and delivering on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Grow earnings per share to about $2.1 in FY26	Earnings per share are expected to grow to about $2.1 in 2026.	Intact	EPS guidance midpoint falls below $1.6	Diluted EPS: $0.10 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS ~2.1 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 29, 20260.1 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d9f92ac5-5e4c-41f1-911c-3d8bcb8ac39d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated or implied in 5 of last 5 quarters by consistent dividend payments. Dividend per share remained steady at $0.60 from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q2, demonstrating management's commitment to maintain dividend payout. The trajectory is stable and delivering on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve and maintain positive net income	Insperity is improving its profits, with net income rising from -$33M to $33M.	Intact	net income falls below zero in any quarter	Net income: $4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: positive net income sustained. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20264,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d9f92ac5-5e4c-41f1-911c-3d8bcb8ac39d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Net income improved from a loss of $33M in 2025-Q4 to a positive $4M in 2026-Q2, reflecting progress in restoring profitability. Management continues to emphasize achieving positive net income, and the financials show delivering improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$2.80 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$7.24B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.80	$7,236,333,380	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$2.80	$7,236,333,380	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$2.80	$7,236,333,380	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$2.80	$7,236,333,380	5 / 5
2026-07-28	$2.80	$7,236,333,380	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$2.80	$7,236,333,380	5 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$7,236,333,380	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$7,251,694,500	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-05	$2.70	$7,202,224,300	5 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$2.70	$7,202,224,300	5 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-10	$2.70	$7,202,224,300	5 / 5
2026-08-12	$2.70	$7,202,224,300	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$2.70	$7,202,224,300	5 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	3	1
2026-06-01	1	3	1
2026-07-01	1	3	1
2026-08-01	1	3	1
2026-09-01	1	3	1
2026-10-01	1	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve cash flow from operationsCash from operations: $129M
Maintain dividend payout at $0.6 per shareDividend per share: $0.60 per share
Grow earnings per share to about $2.1 in FY26Diluted EPS: $0.10 per share
Achieve and maintain positive net incomeNet income: $4M

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Insperity outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NSP is a business recovery thesis, with management making progress on profitability but growth still limited. Its thesis state is watch, and recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort despite improved momentum.

What's priced into Insperity

The evidence describes NSP as expensive versus peers, though the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is slightly negative. The priced-in assessment calls fragility low and the valuation justified, rather than showing that the full combination of weak execution and turbulence is reflected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management has made progress on margin recovery: operating income and net income improved between 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q2, and operating expenses fell year over year. Revenue grew modestly in 2026-Q2 as average paid WSEEs declined, so growth momentum remains mixed; recent earnings beats and stronger momentum are positive, but earnings quality is fragile and recent surprises have been erratic.

What Insperity hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on whether margin gains continue and sales and AI initiatives turn modest revenue growth into stronger momentum. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from PAYX, RHI, and KFY could sustain a supportive sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.