Paychex (PAYX)

NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$111.63+0.77%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Paychex’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.41 → 6.41 EPS · FY ending May 31, 2028 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

5 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Grow adjusted diluted EPS by 10% to 11% in fiscal 2026	Paychex grows adjusted EPS by about 10% to 11% in fiscal 2026.	Intact	adjusted diluted EPS growth falls below 9% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Adjusted diluted EPS grew from $1.22 in 2026-Q1 to $1.34 in 2027-Q1, reflecting 10% growth. Management's guidance for fiscal 2027 anticipates 7% to 9% EPS growth, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain adjusted operating margin near 44% in fiscal 2027	Revenue rises 5% to 6% with a strong profit margin near 44%.	Intact	operating margin falls below 40% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Integrate Paycor acquisition and expand AI capabilities to support 17% to 19% revenue growth contribution	The Paycor acquisition and AI platform boost growth and competitive edge.	Under Pressure	Paycor contribution to revenue growth falls below 15%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Paycor acquisition contributed approximately 17% to Management Solutions revenue growth in 2026-Q2 and continued to drive 23% revenue growth in 2026-Q3. Management consistently highlights integration progress and AI innovation, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve 5% to 6% revenue growth in fiscal 2027	A primary condition in Paychex's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY growth.	Under Pressure	revenue growth falls below 5% in FY27	Revenue growth: 5.88% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 24, 20265.876623 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Aug 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c3040886-6722-4b3c-84f4-1d1660d94749. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Adjusted diluted EPS grew from $1.22 in 2026-Q1 to $1.34 in 2027-Q1, reflecting 10% growth. Management's guidance for fiscal 2027 anticipates 7% to 9% EPS growth, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Repurchase up to $1 billion of common stock in fiscal 2026	A supporting condition in Paychex's published investment case. The stated target is $1 billion repurchase authorization.	Intact	share repurchases fall below $600 million in FY26	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$6.41

$6.39 → $6.41 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$7.24B

$7.24B → $7.24B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.39	$7,237,926,350	16 / 15
2026-07-25	$6.41	$7,239,407,725	10 / 12
2026-07-26	$6.39	$7,237,926,350	16 / 15
2026-07-27	$6.39	$7,237,926,350	16 / 15
2026-07-28	$6.39	$7,237,926,350	16 / 15
2026-07-29	$6.39	$7,237,926,350	16 / 15
2026-07-30	$6.41	$7,239,405,175	10 / 12
2026-07-31	$6.38	$7,237,688,860	16 / 15
2026-08-01	$6.41	$7,239,405,175	10 / 12
2026-08-02	$6.38	$7,237,688,860	16 / 15
2026-08-03	$6.41	$7,239,167,680	10 / 12
2026-08-04	$6.41	$7,239,167,683	10 / 12
2026-08-05	$6.41	$7,239,167,683	10 / 12
2026-08-06	$6.41	$7,239,167,683	10 / 12
2026-08-07	$6.41	$7,239,167,683	10 / 12
2026-08-08	$6.38	$7,237,688,860	16 / 15
2026-08-09	$6.41	$7,239,167,683	10 / 12
2026-08-10	$6.41	$7,239,167,683	10 / 12
2026-08-12	$6.41	$7,239,167,683	10 / 12
2026-08-13	$6.41	$7,239,167,683	10 / 12
2026-08-14	$6.41	$7,239,167,683	10 / 12
2026-08-15	$6.41	$7,239,167,683	10 / 12
2026-08-16	$6.41	$7,239,167,683	10 / 12
2026-08-17	$6.41	$7,239,167,683	10 / 12
2026-08-18	$6.41	$7,239,167,683	10 / 12
2026-08-19	$6.41	$7,239,167,683	10 / 12
2026-08-20	$6.41	$7,239,169,549	10 / 12
2026-08-21	$6.41	$7,239,169,549	10 / 12
2026-08-22	$6.41	$7,239,169,549	10 / 12
2026-08-23	$6.41	$7,239,169,549	10 / 12
2026-08-24	$6.41	$7,239,169,549	10 / 12
2026-08-25	$6.41	$7,239,169,549	10 / 12
2026-08-26	$6.41	$7,238,975,523	10 / 12
2026-08-27	$6.41	$7,238,975,523	10 / 12
2026-08-28	$6.41	$7,238,975,523	10 / 12
2026-08-29	$6.41	$7,241,108,856	10 / 12
2026-08-30	$6.41	$7,241,108,856	10 / 12
2026-08-31	$6.41	$7,241,108,856	10 / 12
2026-09-01	$6.41	$7,241,108,856	10 / 12
2026-09-02	$6.41	$7,241,108,856	10 / 12
2026-09-03	$6.41	$7,241,108,856	10 / 12
2026-09-04	$6.41	$7,241,108,856	10 / 12
2026-09-05	$6.41	$7,241,308,302	10 / 12
2026-09-06	$6.41	$7,241,308,302	11 / 13
2026-09-07	$6.41	$7,241,308,302	11 / 13
2026-09-08	$6.41	$7,241,308,302	11 / 13
2026-09-09	$6.41	$7,241,258,302	11 / 13
2026-09-10	$6.41	$7,241,258,302	11 / 13
2026-09-11	$6.41	$7,241,258,302	11 / 13
2026-09-12	$6.41	$7,241,170,802	11 / 13
2026-09-13	$6.41	$7,241,170,802	11 / 13
2026-09-14	$6.41	$7,241,170,802	11 / 13
2026-09-15	$6.41	$7,241,170,802	11 / 13
2026-09-16	$6.41	$7,241,170,802	11 / 13
2026-09-17	$6.41	$7,242,695,802	11 / 13
2026-09-18	$6.41	$7,242,695,802	11 / 13
2026-09-19	$6.41	$7,242,695,802	11 / 13
2026-09-20	$6.41	$7,245,258,302	11 / 13
2026-09-21	$6.41	$7,245,258,302	11 / 13
2026-09-22	$6.41	$7,245,255,915	11 / 13
2026-09-23	$6.41	$7,245,630,915	11 / 13
2026-09-24	$6.41	$7,245,596,049	11 / 13
2026-09-25	$6.42	$7,241,121,793	12 / 14
2026-09-26	$6.41	$7,239,773,440	12 / 14
2026-09-27	$6.41	$7,239,773,440	12 / 14
2026-09-28	$6.41	$7,239,773,440	12 / 14
2026-09-29	$6.41	$7,239,773,440	12 / 14
2026-09-30	$6.41	$7,239,773,440	12 / 14
2026-10-01	$6.41	$7,239,773,440	12 / 14
2026-10-02	$6.41	$7,239,773,440	12 / 14
2026-10-03	$6.41	$7,239,773,440	12 / 14
2026-10-04	$6.41	$7,239,773,440	12 / 14
2026-10-05	$6.41	$7,239,773,440	12 / 14
2026-10-06	$6.41	$7,239,773,440	12 / 14
2026-10-07	$6.41	$7,239,773,440	12 / 14
2026-10-08	$6.41	$7,239,773,440	12 / 14
2026-10-09	$6.41	$7,229,491,087	12 / 14
2026-10-10	$6.41	$7,229,491,087	12 / 14
2026-10-11	$6.41	$7,239,773,440	12 / 14
2026-10-12	$6.41	$7,239,776,287	12 / 14
2026-10-13	$6.41	$7,239,776,287	12 / 14
2026-10-14	$6.41	$7,239,776,287	12 / 14
2026-10-15	$6.41	$7,239,776,287	12 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	14	4
2026-06-01	3	14	4
2026-07-01	3	12	4
2026-08-01	2	12	5
2026-09-01	2	15	5
2026-10-01	2	15	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

2 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Robert W. BairdSep 28

$110.00New observation · no comparable prior

Stifel NicolausSep 24 · prior Jun 17

$110.00 → $112.00+1.8%

BMO CapitalSep 24

$113.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$62.15$124.30

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Grow adjusted diluted EPS by 10% to 11% in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain adjusted operating margin near 44% in fiscal 2027Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Integrate Paycor acquisition and expand AI capabilities to support 17% to 19% revenue growth contributionPublished status: Under Pressure
Achieve 5% to 6% revenue growth in fiscal 2027Published status: Under Pressure
Repurchase up to $1 billion of common stock in fiscal 2026Required source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Paychex outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable compounder with a focus on steady earnings growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis state is cautious, given recent performance and sector challenges.

What's priced into Paychex

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with PAYX considered cheap compared to its peers. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that current estimates are not overly aggressive.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its goal of 7% to 9% adjusted diluted EPS growth for fiscal 2027. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings estimates, which could impact sentiment.

What Paychex hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like KFY, RHI, and TNET. Positive earnings from these companies could provide a tailwind, while negative results could signal trouble for PAYX.