Reading ORN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ORN free→Reading ORN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ORN free→NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. However, management's recent track record has been volatile, and risk is elevated, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of key Industrials peers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.91. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 ORN trades at 51× p/e — 1.5× the 35× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $14 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 5% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.24x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.08 → $0.06 (-22.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$227.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$520.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,156.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: GDP growth shows how healthy the economy is and affects demand for Orion's services.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is revised upward to above 2% for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is revised downward to below 1% for Q1 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ORN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) on May 19, 2026, at which the Company’s stockholders voted to, among other things, approve Amendment No. 2 (the “LTIP Amendment”) to the Orion Group Holdings, Inc. 2022 Long-Term Incentive Plan, as amended (the “2022 LTIP”). The LTIP Amend…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction & Engineering.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ORN Orion Group Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | full | elevated |
PWR Quanta Services | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FIX Comfort Systems USA | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EME Emcor | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | full | moderate |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Orion aims to achieve revenue between $900 million and $950 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Orion plans to maintain capital expenditures in the range of $25 million to $35 million for 2026.
Orion aims for adjusted EPS between $0.36 and $0.42 for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can change how much Orion's services are needed in construction and marine.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease by more than 1% month over month.
to the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Use of Non-GAAP Financial Information To help understand the Company…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 16, 2026, each of Thomas N. Amonett and Peggy M. Foran informed the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (“Orion”) that they would retire from the Board and all committee positions effective upon the closing of Orion’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders scheduled to be held on May 19, 2026. Mr. Amonett’s and Ms.…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 16, 2026, each of Thomas N. Amonett and Peggy M. Foran informed the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (“Orion”) that they would retire from the Board and all committee positions effective upon the closing of Orion’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders scheduled to be held on May 19, 2026. Mr. Amonett’s and Ms.…
to the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Use of Non-GAAP Financial Information To help understand the Company…