Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN)

NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$8.71+3.57%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Orion Group Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.44 → 0.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	246.36M
EPS	—	0.084
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$900M–$950M	930.49M
EPS	$0.36–$0.42non-GAAP	0.25
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1B
EPS	—	0.434

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EPS of $0.36 to $0.42 in 2026	It targets adjusted EPS near $0.39 per share.	Broken	Adjusted EPS falls below $0.36 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EPS was approximately $0.07 in first half 2026, slightly below $0.08 in first half 2025. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.36 to $0.42, indicating a growth target. The trajectory shows mixed progress with current results below midpoint guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain capital expenditures between $25M and $35M in 2026	The company plans to keep capital spending between $25 million and $35 million.	Intact	Capex exceeds $35M or falls below $25M in FY26	Capital expenditures: $11.533M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $25M to $35M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202611,533,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently maintained capital expenditure guidance between $25 million and $35 million for 2026. This reflects disciplined capital allocation with no reported changes or deviations, indicating stable execution on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve revenue of $900M to $950M in 2026	A primary condition in Orion Group Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$925M.	Intact	Revenue falls below $900M in FY26	Revenue: $221.878M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$925M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026221,878,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d7cf3ade-85a5-40e4-9ac3-8e1e425886c1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $393.9 million in first half 2025 to $438.2 million in first half 2026, reflecting solid growth. Management has consistently reaffirmed the full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $900 million to $950 million. The trajectory is delivering with steady revenue growth and a growing backlog supporting the target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.43

$0.66 → $0.43 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.00B

$1.03B → $1.00B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.66	$1,025,479,410	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$0.66	$1,025,479,410	6 / 6
2026-07-26	$0.66	$1,025,479,410	6 / 6
2026-07-27	$0.66	$1,025,479,410	6 / 6
2026-07-28	$0.64	$1,020,406,063	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$0.64	$1,020,406,063	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$0.66	$1,025,479,410	6 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,002,200,429	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,002,200,429	4 / 5
2026-08-02	$0.48	$1,004,220,970	6 / 6
2026-08-03	$0.48	$1,004,220,970	6 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,002,200,429	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,002,200,429	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,002,200,429	4 / 5
2026-08-07	$0.46	$1,001,486,143	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$0.45	$1,003,387,640	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$0.46	$1,001,486,143	5 / 5
2026-08-10	$0.45	$1,003,387,640	6 / 6
2026-08-12	$0.46	$1,001,486,143	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$0.46	$1,001,486,143	5 / 5
2026-08-14	$0.46	$1,001,486,143	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$0.46	$1,001,486,143	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$0.46	$1,001,486,143	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$0.46	$1,001,486,143	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$0.46	$1,001,486,143	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$0.46	$1,001,486,143	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$0.44	$1,000,891,286	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$0.44	$1,000,891,286	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$0.44	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$0.43	$1,000,876,432	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$0.43	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$0.43	$1,000,882,004	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	0	0
2026-06-01	5	0	0
2026-07-01	6	0	0
2026-08-01	6	0	0
2026-09-01	6	0	0
2026-10-01	6	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EPS of $0.36 to $0.42 in 2026Published status: Broken
Maintain capital expenditures between $25M and $35M in 2026Capital expenditures: $11.533M
Achieve revenue of $900M to $950M in 2026Revenue: $221.878M

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-51.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Orion Group Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ORN is an execution-dependent growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder, because the evidence classifies it as loss-making. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: the signal has improved from cautious to mixed, while recent performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Orion Group Holdings, Inc.

Valuation is tagged as stretched, and ORN trades at a 1.11 premium to peers. Expectations are broadly aligned with the model, with a small positive expectations gap, but the evidence does not show a large cushion if execution disappoints.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and a growing backlog support management’s 2026 revenue goal, which remains on track. Adjusted earnings progress is mixed: first-half results were slightly below the prior year and below the pace implied by the full-year guidance. The recent earnings miss, high risk, and sector headwind keep execution risk elevated, despite a quiet near-term miss assessment.

What Orion Group Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on ORN sustaining revenue growth and meeting its 2026 revenue and adjusted earnings goals without cutting guidance. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength from sector peers PWR, FIX, and EME could support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.