Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$9.09-1.52%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve adjusted EPS of $0.36 to $0.42 in 2026: EPS $0.23-$0.30 vs $0.36.
Orion aims to grow revenue to about $925 million in 2026. It targets adjusted EPS near $0.39 per share. The company plans to keep capital spending between $25 million and $35 million. Recent earnings beats support these goals despite a soft guidance tone.
Revenue growth may slow below 10% as the sector faces headwinds. EPS growth is pressured by volatile management and rising costs. The recent 17% stock selloff reflects investor doubts on execution and valuation.
The price is about 11% below our fair value near $16. Analysts expect roughly 11% revenue growth. Our view aligns with consensus but we note risks from soft guidance and market stress.
Breaks if: Adjusted EPS falls below $0.36 in FY26
Target adjusted earnings per share in the range of $0.36 to $0.42 for full-year 2026, reflecting growth ambitions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EPS was approximately $0.07 in first half 2026, slightly below $0.08 in first half 2025. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.36 to $0.42, indicating a growth target. The trajectory shows mixed progress with current results below midpoint guidance.
“Adjusted EPS $0.23 to $0.30 revised guidance”
“For the full year 2026, Orion reaffirms adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $0.36 to $0.42”
“Adjusted EPS in the range of $0.36 to $0.42”
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $35M or falls below $25M in FY26
Continue disciplined capital expenditure management with guidance to keep capex within $25 million to $35 million for 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently maintained capital expenditure guidance between $25 million and $35 million for 2026. This reflects disciplined capital allocation with no reported changes or deviations, indicating stable execution on this priority.
“Capital Expenditures $25 million to $35 million”
“For the full year 2026, Orion reaffirms capital expenditures guidance in the range of $25 million to $35 million”
“Capital expenditures in the range of $25 million to $35 million”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $900M in FY26
Deliver full-year 2026 revenue within the range of $900 million to $950 million, reflecting growth and backlog conversion.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $393.9 million in first half 2025 to $438.2 million in first half 2026, reflecting solid growth. Management has consistently reaffirmed the full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $900 million to $950 million. The trajectory is delivering with steady revenue growth and a growing backlog supporting the target.
“The Company provided the following revised guidance for the full year 2026: Revenue $900M to $950M”
“For the full year 2026, Orion reaffirms its previous guidance of: Revenue in the range of $900 million to $950 million”
“For the full year 2026, Orion currently anticipates the following: Revenue in the range of $900 million to $950 million”
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround scenario with a medium confidence level. The current thesis is watchful due to recent mixed performance and high risk factors, despite some revenue growth.
The valuation is currently seen as expensive compared to peers, with a premium of 1.12. The market appears to have some expectations of growth, but there is a notable gap in expectations that could affect future performance.
Management is on track to achieve revenue targets, but adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are showing mixed progress. The near-term risk is moderate, with a 26% chance of missing guidance, which could impact investor sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet revenue and EPS targets, as well as the performance of sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME. Any guidance cuts or misses from these companies could negatively impact ORN.
The next 1 to 3 years will depend on execution against targets and sector performance. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Rising costs and client delays threaten project backlog growth. This situation raises concerns about the company's ability to secure new project awards.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.