Reading OCC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OCC free→Reading OCC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OCC free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and compared with sector peers, OCC is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 81% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak and earnings quality is fragile. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $20.72. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23 OCC trades at 2× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $113 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 82% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.73x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$523.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,068.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,109.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Growth in this area is a top priority and key to overall company success.
Confirms:Data center market revenue grows year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Data center market revenue declines or grows less than 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OCC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On June 8, 2026, Optical Cable Corporation issued a press release announcing its second quarter of fiscal year 2026 financial results. Also on June 8, 2026, Optical Cable Corporation held an earnings call. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and the transcript for the earnings call is attached as Exhibit 99.2.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Communications Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OCC Optical Cable Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 19 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CSCO Cisco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
ANET Arista Networks | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LITE Lumentum | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MSI Motorola Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Target growth opportunities in multi-tenant and enterprise data center market sectors.
Enhance gross profit margins through operational efficiencies and market expansion.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could signal challenges for Optical Cable Corp and its peers.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median of 5%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above its median of 5%.
Why it matters: Improving margins would show the company is managing costs better. This is key for growth.
Confirms:Q2 gross profit margins improve year over year by more than 2%.
Disproves:Q2 gross profit margins decline or stay flat year over year.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Business Loan Agreement and Promissory Note with Freedom First Federal Credit Union On April 30, 2026, Optical Cable Corporation, a Virginia corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into a Business Loan Agreement (the “ Loan Agreement ”) with Freedom First Federal Credit Union, a federally chartered credit union with its Commercial Lending office located at 207 Bullitt Ave, SE, Roanoke, Virginia 24013 (“ Freedom First ” or “ Lender ”). In connection wi…
Termination of a Definitive Agreement In connection with the closing of the Loan, Optical Cable Corporation terminated its Virginia Real Estate Loan with Northeast Bank, a banking corporation organized under the laws of Maine, upon its satisfaction by payment in full to Northeast Bank in accordance with the terms of the real estate loan. All ancillary loan documents related to the Virginia Real Estate Loan with Northeast Bank are also terminated and all collateral and security released concur…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 10, 2026, Optical Cable Corporation issued a press release announcing its first quarter of fiscal year 2026 financial results. Also on March 10, 2026, Optical Cable Corporation held an earnings call. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and the transcript for the earnings call is attached as Exhibit 99.2.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On December 18, 2025, Optical Cable Corporation issued a press release announcing its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 financial results. Also on December 18, 2025, Optical Cable Corporation held an earnings call. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and the transcript for the earnings call is attached as Exhibit 99.2.