Reading NTGR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NTGR free→Reading NTGR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NTGR free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated in the current environment. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, NTGR is trading at a typical valuation. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.53. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 NTGR trades at 49× p/e — 1.3× the 39× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $21 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 14% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.48x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.04 → $0.01 (+129.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$183.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$422.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,482.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if NETGEAR can improve its financial situation. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue decline year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NTGR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and the exhibit to this Current Report are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information furnished pursuant to this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Communications Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NTGR NETGEAR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | elevated |
CSCO Cisco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
ANET Arista Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LITE Lumentum | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MSI Motorola Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing non-GAAP operating margin to achieve positive results.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income declined from -$4.7M in 2025-Q4 to -$13.6M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in improving margins. Despite recurring focus, substantive delivery remains narrow.
“We expect non-GAAP operating margin to be in the range of (1.0)% to 2.0%.”
“We expect our fourth quarter non-GAAP operating margin to be in the range of (2.0)% to 1.0%.”
“Non-GAAP operating margin to be in the range of (5.5)% to (2.5)%.”
“Non-GAAP operating margin to be in the range of (6.0)% to (3.0)%.”
Aim to meet the revenue guidance range of $150 million to $165 million for Q2 2026.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue decreased from $182.5M in 2025-Q4 to $158.8M in 2026-Q1, showing a decline. The company aims to meet the Q2 2026 guidance of $150M to $165M, but delivery remains uncertain.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to strengthen financial stability.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operations improved to $1.6M in Q1 2026 from negative $7.4M in Q3 2025, indicating progress. The focus on enhancing cash flow is delivering positive results.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal wider issues for NETGEAR. It may impact demand for its products.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth has been below its median for two months in a row.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median for two consecutive months.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can indicate consumer demand. Strong sales may help NETGEAR's revenue outlook.
Confirms:Retail sales report shows growth above 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales report shows decline month over month.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On April 12, 2026, Bradley L. Maiorino, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of NETGEAR, Inc. (the “Company”), informed the Company that he will not stand for re-election at the upcoming 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (Annual Meeting). Mr. Maiorino’s decision was made solely due to increased demands from his new full-time execu…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, NETGEAR, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for its fourth fiscal quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, the text of which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished pursuant to this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2025, NETGEAR, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for its third fiscal quarter ended September 28, 2025, the text of which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished pursuant to this
and the exhibit to this Current Report are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information furnished pursuant to this
“We expect second quarter net revenue to be in the range of $150 million to $165 million.”
“We expect fourth quarter net revenue to be in the range of $170 million to $185 million.”
“We expect third quarter net revenue to be in the range of $165 million to $180 million.”
“We expect first quarter net revenue to be in the range of $145 million to $160 million.”
“Cash from operations improved to $1.6M in Q1 2026 from negative in prior quarters.”
“Cash from operations was $19.5M in Q4 2025.”
“Cash from operations was negative $7.4M in Q3 2025.”