Reading MPAA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MPAA free→Reading MPAA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is elevated, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If MPAA cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 MPAA trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $13 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 12% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.55x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.18 → $0.20 (+10.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$137.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$427.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,631.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is on track. This is key for investors.
Confirms:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MPAA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On June 8, 2026 , Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the fiscal quarter and year ended March 31 , 2026 which is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such fil…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MPAA Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | elevated |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management is emphasizing the importance of increasing revenue across its operations.
Management aims to enhance operating income through efficiency and cost management.
Management is focused on improving cash flow from operations to support business activities.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is crucial for funding growth and managing costs.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations increases by more than 10% compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations decreases or stays flat compared to the previous quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 9, 2026 , Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the fiscal quarter ended December 31 , 2025 which is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filin…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 2, 2026, Patricia W. Warfield resigned her position as a member of (i) the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (the “Company”), and (ii) the Human Resources and Compensation Committee of the Board due to personal/professional commitment reasons. Ms. Warfield’s resignation was not due to any disagreement wi…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 10 , 2025, Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its earnings for the fiscal quarter ended September 30 , 2025 which is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such fil…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 10, 2025, F. Jack Liebau, Jr., a member of (i) the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (the “Company”), (ii) the Audit Committee of the Board and (iii) the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee of the Board resigned from the Board, effective November 10, 2025. Mr. Liebau’s resignation was not due…