Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$10.18+0.39%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	197.14M
EPS	—	0.617
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$400M	789.74M
EPS	—	1.173
EBITDA	$95M–$100M	—
Operating income	$86M–$91M	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	842.26M
EPS	—	1.44

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating income improves above $21M	Operating income improved from -$6.5M to $21.1M in one year.	Broken	Operating income falls below $15M in next four quarters	Operating income: $3.532M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Operating income > $21M. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 10, 20263,532,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 729731bc-81e7-43bb-b09b-df7d1d2b4760. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income rose from $39.9 million in fiscal 2025 to $65.8 million in fiscal 2026, with guidance reaffirmed for $86-$91 million in fiscal 2027, reflecting expected year-over-year growth of 12.3% to 18.8%. Management links margin improvement to brake-related capacity utilization and operating efficiencies, showing delivery on profitability goals. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating margin near 15.5% in fiscal 2027	Profit margin is expected near 15.5% next fiscal year.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 12.3% in fiscal 2027	Operating margin: 2.1% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: 15.5% operating margin. Target period ends 2027-03-31; this observation covers 2027-Q1. Source published Aug 10, 20262.102118 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 729731bc-81e7-43bb-b09b-df7d1d2b4760. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income rose from $39.9 million in fiscal 2025 to $65.8 million in fiscal 2026, with guidance reaffirmed for $86-$91 million in fiscal 2027, reflecting expected year-over-year growth of 12.3% to 18.8%. Management links margin improvement to brake-related capacity utilization and operating efficiencies, showing delivery on profitability goals. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to about $790M in fiscal 2027	Motorcar Parts of America grows revenue about 5% yearly, hitting $790M next year.	Intact	Revenue falls below $750M in fiscal 2027	Revenue: $168.021M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$790M. Target period ends 2027-03-31; this observation covers 2027-Q1. Source published Aug 10, 2026168,021,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 729731bc-81e7-43bb-b09b-df7d1d2b4760. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	0	0
2026-06-01	3	0	0
2026-07-01	3	0	0
2026-08-01	3	0	0
2026-09-01	3	0	0
2026-10-01	3	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income improves above $21MPublished status: Broken
Operating margin near 15.5% in fiscal 2027Published status: Broken
Revenue grows to about $790M in fiscal 2027Revenue: $168.021M

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk profitability and growth improvement story, not yet a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management priorities are on track, while recent performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.

MPAA is described as cheap versus peers, and the pricing signal is tagged as justified, with low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, but confidence in that valuation model is low, so the evidence does not establish how much improvement the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, management is making progress on revenue, operating income, and cash from operations, and has reaffirmed fiscal 2027 guidance. Near term, erratic earnings and the most recent miss leave an elevated risk of another miss, despite guidance being reaffirmed as of August 10.

What Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on delivering the reaffirmed guidance and turning new business commitments into sales, while sustaining operating efficiencies and stronger cash generation. Near-term signals also include whether guidance is cut and whether sector bellwethers keep beating and guiding higher, or instead weaken.