Reading MH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MH free→Reading MH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MH free→NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, MH is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 62% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $10 MH trades at 5× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $27 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $14–$19. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 62% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 9.38x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.48 (+188.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 92% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 34.8% above current price.
2 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$202.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$497.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,275.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Improvement would show management is addressing cash flow issues. This could support growth.
Confirms:Cash from operations turns positive in Q1 2027, exceeding $308.97M.
Disproves:Cash from operations stays negative or goes down more in Q1 2027.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On June 11, 2026 , McGraw Hill, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results for the fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “fil…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$14.00 – $19.00 (median $16.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Education Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MH McGraw Hill, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
EDU NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC | — | — | elevated |
DUOL Duolingo | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | elevated |
LAUR Laureate Education, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | moderate |
GHC Graham Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Management has revised the fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance upwards.
Focus on maintaining strong cash flow from operations to support business activities.
Why it matters: A revision would show management's confidence in growth. This could boost investor trust.
Confirms:Management raises FY 2026 revenue guidance to over $2,061M.
Disproves:Management keeps FY 2026 revenue guidance below $2,031M.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback plan could signal confidence in the stock. This may affect market perception.
Confirms:Company says it has finished a big part of the $50M buyback.
Disproves:No updates on the buyback plan or delays in execution.
Other Events On June 2, 2026, the Company’s board of directors approved a share repurchase plan whereby, from time to time, the Company may repurchase up to $50.0 million of the Company’s common stock.
and in Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by reference in such filing.
Mr. Moyer, age 60, most recently served as Vimeo, Inc.’s (“Vimeo”) CEO, beginning in April 2024. Prior to joining Vimeo, Mr. Moyer served as Global VP of Applied AI Engineering and Business Development and VP of Strategic Industries at Google Cloud, a division of Alphabet Inc., a role he held since July 2019. Prior to Alphabet Inc., Mr. Moyer was Director of Financial Services at Amazon Web Services, a division of Amazon.com, Inc, where he managed Banking, Capital Markets, Insurance and Payme…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 5, 2026, McGraw Hill, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Brian Van Dam as its Chief Accounting Officer, a newly-created position at the Company, and as principal accounting officer of the Company, each effective as of the same date. Mr. Van Dam, age 52, most recently served as Vice President, Controller of Array Corporation from February 202…