Reading FC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FC free→Reading FC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FC free→NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, FC trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 98% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $24, FC's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 64× p/e (3.8× the 17× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~88% near-term growth vs our ~-3% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $13 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 88% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 9.44x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.57 → $0.70 (+23.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$173.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$449.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,225.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how confident consumers are. This impacts Franklin Covey's sales.
Confirms one read:Retail sales go up month after month. This means consumers are spending more.
Confirms the other:Retail sales go down month after month. This shows weaker demand from consumers.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Education Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FC Franklin Covey Co. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | high |
EDU NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC | — | — | elevated |
DUOL Duolingo | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | elevated |
LAUR Laureate Education, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | moderate |
GHC Graham Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain the revenue guidance for FY2026 between $265 million and $275 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $59.6M in 2026-Q2, indicating a need for significant growth to meet the annual guidance of $265-$275M. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“We are reaffirming our FY2026 guidance of total revenue of $265 to $275 million.”
“The Company affirms the following guidance, in constant currency: Total revenue in the range of $265 million to $275 million.”
“Based on current expectations, the Company provides the following guidance, in constant currency: Total revenue in the range of $265 million to $275 million.”
Maintain the Adjusted EBITDA guidance for FY2026 between $28 million and $33 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Despite the reaffirmation, the company reported a net loss of $2.0M in 2026-Q2, indicating challenges in achieving the EBITDA target. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
“We are reaffirming our FY2026 guidance of Adjusted EBITDA of $28 to $33 million.”
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift in the sector. This would help Franklin Covey's performance in a maturing market.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth hits 4% or more. This shows a recovery.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays below 4%. This means it is still slowing down.
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. In connection with Ms. Procter’s transition to the President of the Enterprise Division, the following annual compensation adjustments were approved by the Board of Directors: Compensation Element New Amount Base Salary $ 435,000 Short-term incentive plan (cash) (1) 304,500 Long-term incentive plan (equity) (1) 500,000 (1) Amounts presented in the…
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On August 5, 2025, Franklin Covey Co. (the Company) announced the following changes to its executive leadership team. Jennifer C. Colosimo Departure After 24 years of extraordinary service, Jennifer C. Colosimo will step down as President of the Enterprise Division, effective August 31, 2025. Ms. Colosimo will continue to be employed by the Company…
“Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $28 million to $33 million.”
“Based on current expectations, the Company provides the following guidance, in constant currency: Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $28 million to $33 million.”