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Coursera, Inc. (COUR)
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$5.33+0.57%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Education & Training Services
- Market cap
- $1.53B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2021-03-05
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-23
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.33. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$3.83consensus
Range $3.38 – $5.23
vs price: +39% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$5.44consensus
Range $5.44 – $5.44
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $5.33 COUR trades at 30× p/e — 1.7× the 17× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $3.75 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $7.00–$10. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
29.6x
peer 17.0x · own history —
Premium
1.7x peer
Growth the price needs
44%
our forecast 13%
Our fair value
$3.75
range $3.38 – $5.01
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 44% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
6th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -1.41x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral11 analysts, 58% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.09 → $0.09 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 9 cut, 11 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 58% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$271.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$587.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,992.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth to stabilize or decline
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends impact investor confidence. A decline signals deeper issues.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stabilizes or exceeds 4% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for COUR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like EDU, MH, and UTI keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting COUR and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If COUR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-11), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If COUR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-11), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like EDU, MH, and UTI start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping COUR and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If COUR misses again next quarter like this past one (a solid miss of -10% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-111mo agoItem 2.01
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On May 11, 2026, Coursera, Inc., a Delaware public benefit corporation (the “Company”), completed its previously announced combination with Udemy, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Udemy”), pursuant to that certain Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated as of December 17, 2025 (the “Merger Agreement”), by and among Udemy, the Company and Chess Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“Merger Sub…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.