Reading UTI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UTI free→Reading UTI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UTI free→NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with UTI trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 166% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $37 UTI trades at 48× p/e — 2.8× the 17× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $14 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $41–$49. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 161% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.93x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.14 → $0.02 (-87.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$234.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$440.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,737.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims data gives insight into the job market. A rising trend may signal economic weakness.
Confirms:Claims data shows a decrease below 200,000 for two consecutive weeks.
Disproves:Claims data shows an increase above 300,000 for two consecutive weeks.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UTI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026 , Universal Technical Institute, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release reporting its second quarter results for fiscal 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Form 8-K”) and is incorporated into this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$41.00 – $49.00 (median $42.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-07
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Education Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UTI Universal Technical Institute, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 16 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EDU NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC | — | — | elevated |
DUOL Duolingo | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | elevated |
LAUR Laureate Education, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | moderate |
GHC Graham Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management continues to reaffirm its full-year revenue guidance between $905 million and $915 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue for 2026-Q2 was $221.4 million, slightly below the previous quarter's $220.8 million. Management has consistently reaffirmed the full-year revenue guidance between $905 million and $915 million, but the recent earnings miss suggests limited progress towards this target.
“We continue to expect revenue between $905 million and $915 million.”
“Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, we expect revenue between $905 and $915 million.”
“We are raising the lower end our guidance ranges for fiscal 2025 across revenue.”
Management aims to increase total new student starts to between 31,500 and 33,000.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management expects new student starts between 31,500 and 33,000 for fiscal 2026. The consistent reaffirmation of this target indicates a recurring focus, but without specific enrollment numbers, the delivery remains unclear.
“We also continue to expect total new student starts between 31,500 and 33,000.”
Management reaffirms its full-year EPS guidance between $0.71 and $0.80.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Management reaffirmed its full-year EPS guidance between $0.71 and $0.80. However, diluted EPS for 2026-Q2 was only $0.01, indicating limited progress towards the full-year target.
“Diluted EPS $1.13 $0.71 - 0.80.”
Why it matters: Retail sales data impacts consumer spending. This can affect UTI's business outlook and revenue.
Confirms one read:The retail sales report shows a month-over-month increase. It is greater than 1%.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a month-over-month decrease or no growth.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026 , Universal Technical Institute, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release reporting its first quarter results for fiscal 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Form 8-K”) and is incorporated into this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 19, 2025, Universal Technical Institute, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release reporting fourth quarter and full year results for fiscal 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated into this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2025, Universal Technical Institute, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release reporting its third quarter results for fiscal 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Form 8-K”) and is incorporated into this
“We are raising the lower end of our fiscal 2025 for revenue and new student start ranges.”