Reading GHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GHC free→Reading GHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GHC free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact GHC's performance compared to its peers, where it trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The outlook hinges on sector trends, particularly if bellwethers like LAUR, CVSA, and LRN continue to beat earnings and guide higher. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1148.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1,132 the market pays 20× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 17× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $992 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 14% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.19x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $14.90 → $14.83 (-0.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$97.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$254.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,978.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Closing this sale would impact cash flow and focus on core business areas.
Confirms:The sale of Kaplan Languages Group is now complete and has been announced.
Disproves:The sale is delayed or canceled.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GHC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Graham Holdings Company issued a press release announcing the Company’s earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished with this report as an exhibit to this Form 8-K.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Education Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GHC Graham Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
EDU NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC | — | — | elevated |
DUOL Duolingo | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | elevated |
LAUR Laureate Education, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | full | moderate |
CVSA Covista Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | high |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on revenue growth in education, television broadcasting, healthcare, and manufacturing.
Acquisition of Covenant Home Health to expand healthcare services in Eastern Pennsylvania.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show the company is on track with its growth goals. It is key for overall performance.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends are key to understanding the company's performance. A drop could signal a change in the growth phase.
Confirms:Quarterly revenue growth falls below the median growth rate for the past two years.
Disproves:Quarterly revenue growth remains above the median growth rate.
Why it matters: If they exceed this amount, it shows strong operations. It also shows good cost control.
Confirms:Adjusted operating cash flow exceeds $120 million in Q2.
Disproves:Adjusted operating cash flow falls below $100 million in Q2.
Why it matters: CPI data can impact consumer spending and inflation outlook. This affects Graham Holdings.
Confirms one read:CPI shows an increase above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:CPI shows a decrease below 0.2% month over month.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much people are spending. This affects Graham Holdings' business.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decline below -0.2% month over month.
Why it matters: Better healthcare results would show that Covenant Home Health is growing.
Confirms:Healthcare division revenue grows by more than 20% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Healthcare division revenue growth is less than 10% year over year in Q2.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, Graham Holdings Company issued a press release announcing the Company’s earnings for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished with this report as an exhibit to this Form 8-K.