Graham Holdings (GHC)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$1117.45-0.91%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Graham Holdings grows revenue about 6% yearly across education and media. Profit margins remain stable with solid free cash flow. The company has a strong track record with a 28% EPS beat last quarter. Management is on track to increase revenue across divisions.
Revenue growth could slow below 6% if demand weakens. Profit margins may compress if costs rise. A miss on earnings or revenue targets would challenge the thesis.
The price is about 8% above our fair value near $1073. Analysts expect roughly 7% revenue growth, which aligns with our view.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $69 in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow yield falls below 6%
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by consistent revenue growth and strong operating income, despite some fragility in earnings quality.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, as evidenced by a valuation that is considered cheap relative to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for potential upside from management's execution.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued revenue growth driven by strong performance in several divisions, including healthcare. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for earnings misses in the broader Consumer Discretionary sector.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwether MATW, as its earnings results will influence GHC's momentum. Additionally, the impact of inflation on interest rates could pose risks if inflation reaccelerates.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GHC's performance will depend on its ability to maintain revenue growth and navigate sector challenges. Not investment advice.