Reading STRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STRA free→Reading STRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STRA free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact estimates, while a raise could provide a momentum boost. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $75.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $74 STRA trades at 12× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $103 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $80–$95. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 28% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.68x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.80 → $1.80 (+0.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$123.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$342.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,575.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
The valuation changed, moving from inexpensive to fair. The sector backdrop fell, indicating a headwind for the company. Risk remained moderate, while recent financial performance was strong. The overall confidence in the stock is medium, and the situation is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if net income is increasing as planned. This is key for growth.
Confirms:Net income reported for Q2 is higher than the previous quarter.
Disproves:Net income for Q2 is lower than the previous quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for STRA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Strategic Education, Inc. (“Strategic Education”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the period ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is hereby incorporated by reference into this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$80.00 – $95.00 (median $86.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-04-27
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Education Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STRA Strategic Education, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | moderate |
EDU NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC | — | — | elevated |
DUOL Duolingo | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | elevated |
LAUR Laureate Education, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | full | moderate |
GHC Graham Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to pay a consistent dividend of $0.6 per share each quarter.
Focus on growing net income through operational improvements and revenue growth.
Improve operating income through cost management and revenue enhancement.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health and a promise to give value to shareholders.
Confirms:The $0.60 dividend payment is set for June 1, 2026.
Disproves:News of a dividend cut or pause.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it could signal a slowdown in the growth phase. This affects overall performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth for Q2 2026 falls below the median growth rate of the last 1.8 years.
Disproves:Revenue growth for Q2 2026 remains above the median growth rate.
Why it matters: Better operating income is key for long-term growth. It shows good cost control.
Confirms:Operating income is up from the last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income is down from the last quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping the $0.6 dividend shows financial strength. It affects how investors feel.
Confirms:The official announcement says the dividend will stay at $0.6 per share.
Disproves:This means a cut or stop in the dividend.
Why it matters: Enrollment trends affect revenue and profits. A drop shows trouble attracting students.
Confirms:U.S. Higher Education student enrollment decreases more than 1% year over year.
Disproves:U.S. Higher Education student enrollment goes up or stays steady each year.
Why it matters: Improving operating income shows better cost management and can lead to higher profits. This is key for growth.
Confirms:Operating income for Q2 2026 is higher than in Q2 2025.
Disproves:Operating income for Q2 2026 is lower than in Q2 2025.
Why it matters: A rise in bad debt expense shows possible problems with student payments and finances.
Confirms:Bad debt expense as a percentage of revenue rises above 4% in Q2.
Disproves:Bad debt expense as a percentage of revenue stays below 3.5% in Q2.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Strategic Education, Inc. (“Strategic Education”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the period ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is hereby incorporated by reference into this