Reading PRDO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PRDO free→Reading PRDO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PRDO free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 28% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The valuation is supported by the fact that it trades below peer multiples, and the recent financials and earnings quality are not flashing deterioration. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $32.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $32 PRDO trades at 12× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $45 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 28% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.35x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.76 → $0.80 (+5.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$121.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$319.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,722.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and became inexpensive. Risk remained elevated. The sector backdrop was noted as a headwind. Recent financial performance was described as strong.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Guidance above $0.79 shows strong growth and interest from students.
Confirms:Adjusted earnings per diluted share guidance for Q2 2026 exceeds $0.79.
Disproves:Guidance for adjusted earnings per diluted share falls below $0.79.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PRDO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Perdoceo Education Corporation (the " Company ") held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 21, 2026 (the “ Annual Meeting ”). At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s stockholders approved the Perdoceo Education Corporation 2026 Long-Term Incentive Plan (the " 2026 Plan "). Under the 2026 Plan, 4,500,000 Shares are authorized for issuance, plus an…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Education Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PRDO Perdoceo Education Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
EDU NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC | — | — | elevated |
DUOL Duolingo | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | elevated |
LAUR Laureate Education, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | moderate |
GHC Graham Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 15.0% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on growing both revenue and net income as key financial metrics.
Continue efforts to improve operating income through strategic initiatives.
Focus on generating higher cash flow from operating activities.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. It also shows strong operations.
Confirms:Operating income for Q2 2026 is over $54.6 million.
Disproves:Operating income for Q2 2026 falls below $53.6 million.
Why it matters: More enrollments mean strong demand for programs and future income.
Confirms:Total student enrollments increase year over year by more than 1.1%.
Disproves:Total student enrollments decline year over year or grow less than 1.1%.
Why it matters: Exceeding 4% growth would signal a positive shift in the revenue trend for Perdoceo.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping this growth rate shows good cost management. It also shows efficiency.
Confirms:Operating income growth reported above 20% year over year for Q2.
Disproves:Operating income growth reported below 20% year over year for Q2.
Why it matters: More cash from operations helps support growth and keeps finances stable.
Confirms:Net cash from operations is over $70 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Net cash from operations falls below $69.4 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: CPI changes can affect how much people spend. This impacts Perdoceo's revenue.
Confirms one read:CPI goes up a lot, showing inflation is rising.
Confirms the other:CPI goes down or stays the same, showing less inflation.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Perdoceo Education Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release describing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and providing an update to the Company’s second quarter and full year 2026 outlook. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1, and the information contained therein is incorporated herein by reference. Following the issuance of the press release, the Company will…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Annual Incentive Award Program On March 10, 2026, the Compensation Committee (the “ Committee ”) of the Board of Directors of Perdoceo Education Corporation (the “ Company ”) approved the 2026 Annual Incentive Plan (the “ 2026 AIP ”). The 2026 AIP is similar to the Company’s 2025 Annual Incentive Plan (the “ 2025 AIP ”) in all material respects. As…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026, Perdoceo Education Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release describing the Company’s financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 and providing the Company’s 2026 outlook. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1, and the information contained therein is incorporated herein by reference. Following the issuance of the press release, the Company will host a conferenc…