Duolingo (DUOL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-29
$131.59-3.52%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put DUOL beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 29% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 67% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskDUOL’s case rests on durable learning-app growth, though the desk provides no earnings history to confirm its trajectory. Cash backs reported profits, and the latest recorded surprise was an 8.2% beat. DUOL trades at 40× P/E versus a 15× peer median. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite that large premium. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 18%. The Mania market cycle adds context, but the desk reports no active thesis-break alarm. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% above where it trades; our read remains intact; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. DUOL is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 24 analysts currently covering DUOL (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for DUOL in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare DUOL with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUOL Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Education Services — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put DUOL next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
CEO stock sale raises concerns about management's commitment.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $131.59
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $131.59.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
CEO stock sale raises concerns about management's commitment.
Advances: Enhance product with AI and speaking practice features
Analyst optimism supports AI enhancement objectives.
Advances: Enhance product with AI and speaking practice features
AI upgrade aligns with product enhancement objectives.
Advances: Enhance product with AI and speaking practice features
User feedback supports AI enhancements, aligning with product objectives.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth and bookings
Earnings report raises concerns about revenue growth.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth and bookings
Earnings report raises concerns about revenue growth.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth and bookings
Slower revenue outlook poses a challenge to growth objectives.