Duolingo (DUOL)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$143.04+1.17%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Duolingo’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.36 → 3.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	314.84M
EPS	—	0.609
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.21B
EPS	—	2.746
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.37B
EPS	—	3.373

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Invest in AI tools to enhance user engagement and content creation	A supporting condition in Duolingo's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain AI-driven engagement improvements.	Improving	AI investments fail to improve or maintain user engagement	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Execute $400 million share buyback program	Share buybacks show strong capital allocation.	Intact	Buyback program is canceled or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue of $1.205 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Duolingo's published investment case. The stated target is $1.205 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.1 billion in FY26	Revenue: $298.454M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $1.205 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026298,454,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 181c0451-05ea-49e0-8cab-484f017a67d0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased from $252.3M in 2025-Q2 to $298.5M in 2026-Q2. Bookings surpassed $1 billion in 2025. Management is delivering on revenue growth and bookings as a key priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Grow daily active users to 100 million by 2028	Duolingo grows daily active users 21% yearly to 56.5 million.	Improving	DAU growth stalls and fails to progress towards 100 million by 2028	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.37

$3.47 → $3.37 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.37B

$1.38B → $1.37B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.47	$1,375,389,602	10 / 17
2026-07-25	$7.85	$1,376,363,550	6 / 22
2026-07-26	$7.85	$1,376,363,550	6 / 22
2026-07-27	$7.85	$1,376,363,550	6 / 22
2026-07-28	$3.47	$1,375,389,602	10 / 17
2026-07-29	$7.85	$1,376,363,550	6 / 22
2026-07-30	$3.47	$1,375,389,602	10 / 17
2026-07-31	$3.49	$1,376,256,269	10 / 16
2026-08-01	$3.49	$1,376,256,269	10 / 16
2026-08-02	$7.85	$1,376,723,720	6 / 21
2026-08-03	$7.85	$1,376,723,720	6 / 21
2026-08-04	$7.85	$1,376,723,720	6 / 21
2026-08-05	$7.85	$1,376,721,580	6 / 21
2026-08-06	$3.49	$1,376,256,269	10 / 16
2026-08-07	$3.38	$1,365,370,268	10 / 16
2026-08-08	$7.68	$1,363,982,340	7 / 22
2026-08-09	$7.68	$1,363,982,340	7 / 22
2026-08-10	$7.68	$1,363,982,340	7 / 22
2026-08-11	$3.38	$1,365,370,268	10 / 16
2026-08-12	$7.68	$1,361,646,120	7 / 22
2026-08-13	$7.68	$1,361,646,120	7 / 22
2026-08-14	$3.38	$1,365,370,268	10 / 16
2026-08-15	$3.38	$1,365,370,268	11 / 16
2026-08-16	$3.38	$1,365,370,268	11 / 16
2026-08-17	$3.38	$1,365,370,268	11 / 16
2026-08-18	$3.38	$1,365,370,268	11 / 16
2026-08-19	$3.38	$1,365,370,268	11 / 16
2026-08-20	$3.34	$1,365,068,243	10 / 17
2026-08-21	$3.34	$1,365,068,243	10 / 17
2026-08-22	$3.34	$1,365,048,593	10 / 17
2026-08-23	$3.34	$1,365,048,593	10 / 17
2026-08-24	$3.34	$1,365,048,593	10 / 17
2026-08-25	$3.34	$1,365,048,593	10 / 17
2026-08-26	$3.34	$1,365,051,788	10 / 17
2026-08-27	$3.34	$1,365,051,788	10 / 17
2026-08-28	$3.34	$1,365,051,788	10 / 17
2026-08-29	$3.34	$1,365,188,152	10 / 17
2026-08-30	$3.34	$1,365,188,152	10 / 17
2026-08-31	$3.34	$1,365,188,152	10 / 17
2026-09-01	$3.34	$1,365,188,152	10 / 17
2026-09-02	$3.36	$1,367,551,788	10 / 17
2026-09-03	$3.36	$1,367,689,788	10 / 17
2026-09-04	$3.36	$1,367,689,788	10 / 17
2026-09-05	$3.36	$1,367,689,788	10 / 17
2026-09-06	$3.36	$1,367,689,788	10 / 17
2026-09-07	$3.36	$1,367,689,788	10 / 17
2026-09-08	$3.36	$1,367,689,788	10 / 17
2026-09-09	$3.36	$1,367,689,788	10 / 17
2026-09-10	$3.36	$1,367,689,788	10 / 17
2026-09-11	$3.36	$1,367,689,788	10 / 17
2026-09-12	$3.36	$1,367,689,788	10 / 17
2026-09-13	$3.36	$1,367,689,788	10 / 17
2026-09-14	$3.36	$1,367,689,788	10 / 17
2026-09-15	$3.36	$1,367,689,788	10 / 17
2026-09-16	$3.36	$1,367,689,802	10 / 17
2026-09-17	$3.36	$1,367,689,802	10 / 17
2026-09-18	$3.36	$1,367,689,802	10 / 17
2026-09-19	$3.36	$1,367,689,802	10 / 17
2026-09-20	$3.36	$1,367,689,802	10 / 17
2026-09-21	$3.36	$1,367,689,802	10 / 17
2026-09-22	$3.36	$1,367,689,802	10 / 17
2026-09-23	$3.36	$1,367,689,802	10 / 17
2026-09-24	$3.36	$1,367,689,802	10 / 17
2026-09-25	$3.36	$1,367,689,802	10 / 17
2026-09-26	$3.36	$1,367,689,802	10 / 17
2026-09-27	$3.36	$1,367,689,802	10 / 17
2026-09-28	$3.36	$1,367,689,802	10 / 17
2026-09-29	$3.36	$1,367,689,802	10 / 17
2026-09-30	$3.36	$1,367,689,802	10 / 17
2026-10-01	$3.36	$1,367,689,788	10 / 17
2026-10-02	$3.36	$1,367,689,788	10 / 16
2026-10-03	$3.36	$1,367,690,337	10 / 16
2026-10-04	$3.36	$1,367,690,337	10 / 16
2026-10-05	$3.36	$1,367,690,337	10 / 16
2026-10-06	$3.36	$1,367,690,337	10 / 16
2026-10-07	$3.37	$1,367,885,792	10 / 16
2026-10-08	$3.37	$1,367,885,792	10 / 16
2026-10-09	$3.37	$1,367,885,792	10 / 16
2026-10-10	$3.37	$1,367,885,792	10 / 16
2026-10-11	$3.36	$1,368,291,310	10 / 16
2026-10-12	$3.36	$1,368,291,310	10 / 16
2026-10-13	$3.37	$1,367,882,219	10 / 16
2026-10-14	$3.37	$1,367,798,853	10 / 16
2026-10-15	$3.37	$1,367,798,853	10 / 16
2026-10-16	$3.37	$1,370,204,749	10 / 16
2026-10-17	$3.37	$1,370,204,749	10 / 16
2026-10-18	$3.37	$1,370,204,749	10 / 16
2026-10-19	$3.37	$1,370,204,749	10 / 16
2026-10-20	$3.37	$1,370,204,749	10 / 16
2026-10-21	$3.37	$1,370,466,249	10 / 16
2026-10-22	$3.37	$1,370,466,249	10 / 16
2026-10-23	$3.37	$1,370,466,249	10 / 16
2026-10-24	$3.37	$1,370,466,249	10 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	18	1
2026-06-01	4	18	1
2026-07-01	4	19	1
2026-08-01	6	19	2
2026-09-01	6	17	2
2026-10-01	6	16	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Jul 16

$125.00 → $140.00+12.0%

$0$77.00$154.00

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Invest in AI tools to enhance user engagement and content creationDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Execute $400 million share buyback programDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve revenue of $1.205 billion in 2026Revenue: $298.454M
Grow daily active users to 100 million by 2028Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-71.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Duolingo outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented business thesis, supported by robust earnings quality and stable management. The multi-year view is intact: user growth is on track, but recent financial performance is neutral and overall risk is elevated.

What's priced into Duolingo

The valuation signal is neutral, and DUOL carries a 2.76 premium versus peers. The expectations gap is modestly negative, which suggests expectations are not clearly conservative; confidence in this reading is low, and the recent valuation measure has fallen from 28.7 to 18.3.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue rose from $252.3 million in 2025-Q2 to $298.5 million in 2026-Q2, while daily active user growth accelerated to 23% year over year. Management is delivering on user growth and engagement, but the financial impact of AI and speaking features is not yet quantified, and share repurchase activity is still pending. The estimated near-term miss risk is low, though past misses and recent peer misses remain risks.

What Duolingo hinges on

The next guidance update is a key swing factor: a cut would weaken the near-term case, while continued execution would support the current thesis. Over the multi-year view, the case also depends on whether AI and speaking features improve engagement in ways that show up in financial results. Sector signals matter too: continued strength or weakness from bellwethers AUR and UPBD could affect the broader Consumer Discretionary backdrop.