Coursera, Inc. (COUR)

NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$5.08+0.20%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Coursera, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.82 → 0.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EBITDA	$52M–$56Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	372.72M
EPS	—	0.189
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.22B–$1.25B	1.24B
EPS	—	0.633
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.51B
EPS	—	0.823

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $115 million in annual cost synergies post-acquisition	The company targets $115 million in annual cost savings.	Intact	Cost synergies fall short of $115 million within 24 months	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth reaching at least $1.5 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Coursera, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.5 billion.	Broken	Revenue falls below $1.5 billion in FY26	Revenue: $298.6M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.5 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026298,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c31413dd-4390-4b90-8f18-39c206886dd5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Execute $500 million share repurchase program	It also announced a $500 million share buyback to boost shareholder value.	Intact	Buyback program is canceled or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 quarters including 2026-Q1 and Q2. The company repurchased approximately $90 million of shares in 2026-Q2 and $140 million cumulatively under the $500 million share repurchase authorization. Management has reiterated this capital allocation priority and is delivering on repurchase execution. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.82

$0.85 → $0.82 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.51B

$1.49B → $1.51B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.85	$1,486,011,030	8 / 8
2026-07-25	$0.85	$1,486,011,030	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$0.85	$1,486,011,030	8 / 8
2026-07-27	$0.77	$1,490,787,579	6 / 6
2026-07-28	$0.85	$1,486,011,030	8 / 8
2026-07-29	$0.77	$1,490,787,579	6 / 6
2026-07-30	$0.84	$1,486,473,530	7 / 8
2026-07-31	$0.84	$1,516,064,950	8 / 9
2026-08-01	$0.81	$1,515,609,211	5 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.86	$1,516,509,400	9 / 9
2026-08-03	$0.81	$1,515,609,211	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$0.81	$1,515,609,211	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$0.83	$1,507,084,260	10 / 10
2026-08-06	$0.83	$1,507,084,260	10 / 10
2026-08-07	$0.81	$1,515,609,211	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.83	$1,507,084,260	10 / 10
2026-08-09	$0.83	$1,507,084,260	10 / 10
2026-08-10	$0.81	$1,515,609,211	6 / 7
2026-08-11	$0.81	$1,515,609,211	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$0.82	$1,507,094,260	10 / 10
2026-08-13	$0.81	$1,515,609,211	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$0.81	$1,515,609,211	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.81	$1,515,609,211	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.81	$1,515,609,211	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.81	$1,515,609,211	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.81	$1,515,609,211	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.81	$1,515,609,211	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.81	$1,515,609,211	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$0.82	$1,507,171,746	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$0.82	$1,507,174,201	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$0.82	$1,507,174,201	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$0.82	$1,507,174,201	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$0.82	$1,507,174,201	6 / 8
2026-10-22	$0.82	$1,507,174,201	6 / 8
2026-10-23	$0.82	$1,507,174,201	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$0.82	$1,507,174,201	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	4	1
2026-06-01	7	4	1
2026-07-01	7	4	1
2026-08-01	7	4	1
2026-09-01	7	4	0
2026-10-01	7	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BMO CapitalOct 5 · prior Apr 27

$7.00 → $6.00-14.3%

$0$3.85$7.70

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $115 million in annual cost synergies post-acquisitionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth reaching at least $1.5 billion in FY26Published status: Broken
Execute $500 million share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Coursera, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a post-merger growth and execution story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: integration and revenue growth are progressing, but recent financial performance remains weak and earnings quality is loss-making.

What's priced into Coursera, Inc.

Valuation is at a premium to peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of the evidence. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, but those signals do not remove the execution risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue has expanded with the combined business, and management says integration is on track, including a goal of at least $85 million in annual run-rate net synergies by the end of 2026. Consumer segment growth and recent momentum have improved, but weak performance and a run of earnings misses remain concerns; a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.

What Coursera, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on completing integration, realizing synergies, and sustaining growth after the merger. Weaker employment data could raise recession concerns, while continued strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop. The evidence for how those scenarios will unfold is limited.