McGraw Hill, Inc. (MH)

NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$14.62-1.22%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge McGraw Hill, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.08 → 2.08 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	460.12M
EPS	—	0.304
FY 2027 · Annual
Re-occurring revenue	$1.59B–$1.63B	—
Revenue	$2.12B–$2.18B	2.15B
EPS	—	1.975
EBITDA	$750M–$790Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.25B
EPS	—	2.077

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain positive cash from operations	It also announced a $50 million share buyback, showing confidence in cash flow.	Intact	cash from operations remains negative over next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $601,000 FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026601,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1 and 2027-Q1. Cash from operating activities showed volatility, with negative $96.7M in 2026-Q1 but strong recovery to $601M in 2027-Q1. Management emphasizes cost discipline and model durability, indicating mixed but improving cash flow performance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows at least 4% in fiscal 2027	A primary condition in McGraw Hill, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 4% in FY27	Revenue: $549.903M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=4% YoY revenue growth. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 13, 2026549,903,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: dc2f7948-b88e-47b8-b519-ccff6157e2b8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q3. Management revised fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance upward from a prior range of $1,986M-$2,046M to $2,031M-$2,061M, reflecting strong results. This upward revision aligns with reported revenue growth and indicates delivering on guidance adjustment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Valuation remains attractive vs peers	A supporting condition in McGraw Hill, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE below 10.	Intact	PE rises above 10 without earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 5.71x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 20265.7109 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: MH:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$2.08

$2.04 → $2.08 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.25B

$2.25B → $2.25B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-07-25	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-07-26	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-07-27	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-07-28	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-07-29	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-07-30	$2.04	$2,251,271,330	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$2.04	$2,251,271,330	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$2.04	$2,251,271,330	12 / 12
2026-08-03	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-08-04	$2.04	$2,251,271,330	12 / 12
2026-08-05	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-08-06	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-08-07	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$2.04	$2,251,271,330	12 / 12
2026-08-09	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-08-10	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-08-12	$2.04	$2,251,271,330	12 / 12
2026-08-13	$2.04	$2,251,271,330	12 / 12
2026-08-14	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	9 / 10
2026-08-19	$2.04	$2,251,263,190	9 / 10
2026-08-20	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-08-21	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-08-22	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-08-23	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-08-24	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-08-25	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-08-26	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-08-27	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-08-28	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-08-29	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-05	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-26	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-28	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-10	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-11	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-12	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-13	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-14	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-16	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-17	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-18	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-19	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-20	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-21	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-22	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-23	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10
2026-10-24	$2.08	$2,252,201,745	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	1
2026-06-01	12	1
2026-07-01	12	1
2026-08-01	12	1
2026-09-01	12	1
2026-10-01	12	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain positive cash from operationsCash from operations: $601,000
Revenue grows at least 4% in fiscal 2027Revenue: $549.903M
Valuation remains attractive vs peersP/E (TTM): 5.71x

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-49.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

McGraw Hill, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-and-margin improvement story with robust earnings quality, but management execution has been volatile and overall risk is elevated. The long-term thesis is three to six months old and remains in watch status, with recent financial performance below its industry cohort.

What's priced into McGraw Hill, Inc.

The valuation signal is mixed: MH is described as cheap versus peers, while another measure shows a 0.35 premium to peers. The model has low confidence, and the negative expectations gap suggests expectations may be ahead of what current fundamentals support; the priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results show progress: revenue grew 2.6% year over year, gross margin expanded to 79.9%, and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 37.7% in 2026-Q2. Management is on track with growth, margin, and capital-allocation priorities, but AI’s financial contribution remains unclear and recent earnings have been erratic despite a low stated miss risk.

What McGraw Hill, Inc. hinges on

A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued delivery on revenue growth and margin expansion would support the multi-year thesis. Weakening job growth could add pressure to cyclical businesses, while stronger results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.