Reading MGPI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MGPI free→Reading MGPI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MGPI free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 60% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16 MGPI trades at 6× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $41 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 60% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.35x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.50 → $0.51 (+1.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$122.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$364.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,948.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects overall economic health. Strong GDP may boost MGP's market outlook.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is reported above 2% for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is reported below 2% for Q1 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MGPI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, MGP Ingredients, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release relating to financial results for the first quarter 2026, which ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Ac…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Staples (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MGPI MGP Ingredients, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
WMT Walmart | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | expensive | low |
PG Procter & Gamble | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
MGP Ingredients reaffirms its revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 to be between $480 million and $500 million.
MGP Ingredients maintains its adjusted EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 to be between $1.50 and $1.80.
MGP Ingredients expects full-year capital expenditures to be approximately $20 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact consumer demand for MGP's products. Strong sales may indicate better performance.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if MGP can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth speeding up. It is now above 4% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue decline or flat growth year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 25, 2026, MGP Ingredients, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release relating to financial results for the fourth-quarter and full-year 2025, which ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Se…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 11, 2026, the Board of Directors of MGP Ingredients, Inc. (the “Company”) approved a reorganization of certain leadership positions. As a result, the employment of Erika Lapish, Chief Human Resources Officer, and Amel Pasagic, Chief Commercial Officer, will conclude on February 20, 2026. Ms. Lapish and Mr. Pasagic are each entitled to s…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 11, 2025, Karen Seaberg, a Group B director on the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of MGP Ingredients, Inc. (the “Company”) gave notice of her intention to retire from the Board, which was effective at the end of the day on December 14, 2025. On December 14, 2025, the holders of the Company’s preferred stock, acting by written consent,…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2025, MGP Ingredients, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release relating to financial results for the third quarter 2025, which ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Excha…