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Marygold Companies Inc/The (MGLD)
AMEXFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$1.16-0.43%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from MGLD and the performance of sector bellwethers like BLK, BX, and KKR. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- AMEX
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Market cap
- $50.28M
- Employees
- 104
- IPO date
- 2001-04-02
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.16. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$1.76consensus
Range $1.46 – $2.07
vs price: -34% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$1.42consensus
Range $1.18 – $1.66
vs price: -19% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $1.16 MGLD trades at 2× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $1.61 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
1.8x
peer 3.3x · own history —
Premium
0.5x peer
Growth the price needs
-28%
our forecast 3%
Our fair value
$1.61
range $1.32 – $1.90
WhyEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensive12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 28% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
8th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 1.35x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
stable1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme capital-markets/rates.headwind-4.8%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$255.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,011.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,397.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and became inexpensive. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, and risk remained high. The recent financial performance was weak, and earnings quality was noted as loss-making. The management dimension was stable.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for revenue growth dropping below its median
Why it matters: A drop below the median would signal a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Revenue growth is below 12% year over year. This shows a big slowdown.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above 12% year over year, showing continued strength.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MGLD yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Downside triggers
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-121mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026, The Marygold Companies, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three month and nine month periods ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. Pursuant to the rules and regulations of the Securities and Exchange Commission, such exhibit and the information set forth therein and in this
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.