Reading MC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MC free→Reading MC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MC free→NYSEFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact MC's performance compared to its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 28% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. What it hinges on includes the potential for guidance cuts, which could negatively affect estimates and the stock's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $69.40. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for MC right now, so treat our $53 fair value as low-confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 27% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.87x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.62 → $0.62 (+0.0% / 30d). 6 raised, 3 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 27% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 2 guided quarters · -1.0% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$160.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$380.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,323.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'low'.
As of June 16, 2026, confidence changed to low. Risk rose, indicating a higher level of uncertainty. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting challenges in the broader market environment.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A decline shows possible weakness in deals and making money.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenues were below $319.8 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenues exceed $319.8 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Moelis & Company issued a press release announcing financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. All information in the press release is furnished but not filed.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Investment Banking & Brokerage.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MC Moelis & Company | — | full | elevated |
MS Morgan Stanley | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | full | moderate |
GS Goldman Sachs | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | moderate |
IBKR Interactive Brokers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Continue to execute on growth strategy by hiring new Managing Directors across various sectors.
Continue to maintain a strong financial position with cash and liquid investments and no debt.
Continue returning capital to shareholders through regular dividends and share repurchases.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing this quarter. Investors look for strong performance to support stock value.
Confirms:Earnings per share (EPS) exceeds $0.50 for Q2 2026.
Disproves:EPS falls below $0.30 for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in margin may mean higher costs or less profit. This can hurt investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 2026 adjusted pre-tax margin was below 15.0%.
Disproves:Q2 2026 adjusted pre-tax margin exceeds 15.0%.
Why it matters: Increased buybacks can signal strong cash flow and management's confidence in the firm's value.
Confirms:They announced share buybacks over the current $300 million limit.
Disproves:No additional share repurchase announcements by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims mean the economy is struggling. This can reduce the need for financial services.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims fall below 250,000.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may signal trouble for the financial sector. This could impact Moelis & Company’s performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below 13% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains at or above 13% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, Moelis & Company issued a press release announcing financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. All information in the press release is furnished but not filed.