Moelis & Company (MC)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$54.53-0.96%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 25, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Moelis & Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.94 → 3.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 25, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	565.52M
EPS	—	1.174
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.73B
EPS	—	3.027
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.03B
EPS	—	3.836

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
earnings per share growth to at least $3.09 in FY26 and $3.95 in FY27	Earnings per share are expected to grow from about $3.09 in 2026 to $3.95 in 2027.	Intact	EPS falls below $3.09 in FY26 or below $3.95 in FY27	Diluted EPS: $0.62 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.09 EPS in FY26 and >= $3.95 EPS in FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.62 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
maintain or improve guidance consistency without further cuts	A supporting condition in Moelis & Company's published investment case. The stated target is no further downward guidance revisions in next 2 quarters.	Intact	guidance posture worsens with cuts or significant downward revisions	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
annual revenue growth sustaining near $1.5 billion in 2025 and growing toward $2.0 billion in 2027	A primary condition in Moelis & Company's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.69B revenue in FY26 and >= $2.01B revenue in FY27.	Intact	revenue falls below $1.69B in FY26 or below $2.01B in FY27	Revenue: $409.387M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.69B revenue in FY26 and >= $2.01B revenue in FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026409,387,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.84

$3.91 → $3.84 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.03B

$2.01B → $2.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.91	$2,012,936,300	11 / 9
2026-07-25	$3.91	$2,012,936,300	11 / 9
2026-07-26	$3.91	$2,012,936,300	11 / 9
2026-07-27	$3.91	$2,012,936,300	11 / 9
2026-07-28	$3.91	$2,012,936,300	11 / 9
2026-07-29	$3.91	$2,012,936,300	11 / 9
2026-07-30	$3.91	$2,012,936,300	11 / 9
2026-07-31	$3.93	$2,033,568,510	11 / 9
2026-08-01	$3.96	$2,029,483,540	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$3.93	$2,033,568,510	11 / 9
2026-08-03	$3.93	$2,033,568,510	11 / 9
2026-08-04	$3.93	$2,033,568,510	11 / 9
2026-08-05	$3.95	$2,029,483,540	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$3.95	$2,029,483,540	6 / 7
2026-08-07	$3.95	$2,029,483,540	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$3.95	$2,029,483,540	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$3.92	$2,033,568,510	11 / 9
2026-08-10	$3.92	$2,033,568,510	11 / 9
2026-08-12	$3.95	$2,029,483,540	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$3.95	$2,029,483,540	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$3.95	$2,029,483,540	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$3.95	$2,029,483,540	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$3.95	$2,029,483,540	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$3.95	$2,029,483,540	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$3.95	$2,029,483,540	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$3.95	$2,029,483,540	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$3.94	$2,029,540,040	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$3.94	$2,037,995,560	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$3.94	$2,037,700,960	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$3.94	$2,037,700,960	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$3.94	$2,037,700,960	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$3.95	$2,037,700,960	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$3.95	$2,037,890,960	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$3.94	$2,034,434,460	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$3.94	$2,033,736,844	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$3.90	$2,018,248,765	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$3.90	$2,018,248,765	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$3.90	$2,018,832,365	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$3.91	$2,018,832,365	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$3.87	$2,018,832,365	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$3.87	$2,018,774,965	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$3.87	$2,018,774,965	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$3.86	$2,023,008,681	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$3.86	$2,023,008,681	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$3.86	$2,023,008,681	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$3.86	$2,023,008,681	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$3.86	$2,023,008,681	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$3.86	$2,023,008,681	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$3.86	$2,023,008,681	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$3.86	$2,023,008,681	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$3.86	$2,023,008,681	6 / 7
2026-10-25	$3.84	$2,032,342,978	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	7	1
2026-06-01	3	7	1
2026-07-01	3	7	2
2026-08-01	3	7	2
2026-09-01	3	6	2
2026-10-01	4	7	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 26–Oct 25 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 8 · prior Jul 30

$85.00 → $77.00-9.4%

UBSOct 7 · prior Jul 7

$60.00 → $59.00-1.7%

Capital One FinancialOct 6

$60.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 1

$62.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$46.75$93.50

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 26, 2026–Oct 25, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

earnings per share growth to at least $3.09 in FY26 and $3.95 in FY27Diluted EPS: $0.62 per share
maintain or improve guidance consistency without further cutsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
annual revenue growth sustaining near $1.5 billion in 2025 and growing toward $2.0 billion in 2027Revenue: $409.387M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Moelis & Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a financial-services growth story with some durable-business features, including no funded debt and consistent capital returns. The long-term thesis is on watch: management priorities are on track, but the evidence is mixed and overall confidence is low.

What's priced into Moelis & Company

The snapshot does not provide a valuation level or enough evidence to say whether MC is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers, or what expectations the market already assumes. The priced-in assessment shows low fragility, meaning weak execution quality is not being combined with the full set of expensive valuation and turbulent-regime risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, results may remain uneven: MC missed its April quarter and posted a July earnings beat, while company momentum fell sharply. Revenue growth and Managing Director hiring show progress on management’s growth priority, and the firm has maintained no funded debt and returned capital. Earnings quality is fragile, risk is elevated, and the Financials backdrop is a headwind.

What Moelis & Company hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on whether Managing Director hiring can sustain revenue growth and whether management continues to execute its stated priorities. Near-term, another guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while sustained earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum. Rate cuts are also a stated sector risk because Financials have tended to do better when rates stay high.