Reading LTRX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LTRX free→Reading LTRX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LTRX free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.78. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.78 LTRX trades at 52× p/e — 1.3× the 39× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $5.13 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 32% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.38x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.04 → $0.04 (-5.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 57.7% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 2 guided quarters · 11.1% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$239.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$676.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,000.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below this level, it signals a slowdown in demand. This could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5%.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LTRX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 29, 2026, Lantronix, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Needham & Company, LLC and Canaccord Genuity LLC, as underwriters (together, the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to sell, and the Underwriters agreed to purchase, 4,166,667 shares (the “Firm Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), at an initial price to the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Communications Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LTRX Lantronix Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | full | elevated |
CSCO Cisco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
ANET Arista Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LITE Lumentum | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MSI Motorola Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has increased the fiscal 2026 drone revenue outlook to a range of $10 million to $14 million.
Newly stated in 2026-Q3. Management increased the fiscal 2026 drone revenue outlook to $10 million to $14 million. This is a new priority, and the financials do not yet reflect this specific segment's performance.
“we are once again increasing our fiscal 2026 drone outlook, now to a range of $10 million to $14 million”
Management expects Q4 FY2026 revenue to be between $29.0 million and $33.0 million.
Newly stated in 2026-Q3. Management set Q4 FY2026 revenue guidance at $29.0 million to $33.0 million. Current revenue for 2026-Q3 was $30.177 million, indicating alignment with the guidance range.
Management aims for unmanned systems to represent 15% to 20% of overall revenue in fiscal 2027.
Newly stated in 2026-Q3. Management aims for unmanned systems to represent 15% to 20% of overall revenue in fiscal 2027. Current financials do not yet reflect this target, as it is a future goal.
“we continue to see a clear path for unmanned systems to represent 15% to 20% of overall revenue in fiscal 2027”
Why it matters: What management thinks about making money can show how the company will do. Good comments can help build trust.
Confirms:Management says they have plans to make more money in the next few quarters.
Disproves:Management says they are facing problems with making money.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 8, 2026, Lantronix, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Sales Agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with Needham & Company, LLC (“Needham”) and Canaccord Genuity LLC (“Canaccord”), with respect to an at-the-market offering program under which the Company may offer and sell, from time to time at its sole discretion, shares of its common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), having an aggregate offering price of up to $30,000,000…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Lantronix, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release setting forth the Company’s financial results for its third fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In addition, a transcript of management’s prepared remarks for the Company’s third quarter fiscal 2026 investor conference call and audio webcast, scheduled for 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time (4:30 p.m…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, Lantronix, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release setting forth the Company’s financial results for its second fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In addition, a transcript of management’s prepared remarks for the Company’s second quarter fiscal 2026 investor conference call and audio webcast, scheduled for 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 1, 2026, Lantronix, Inc. (the "Company") entered into an amendment to the letter agreement with its Chief Financial Officer, Brent Stringham, providing for the following compensation adjustment: Effective January 1, 2026, Mr. Stringham’s annual base salary has been increased to $375,000 USD. The foregoing description of the amendment to…
“Q4 FY2026 Financial Outlook · Revenue: $29.0 million to $33.0 million, or $31.0 million at the midpoint”