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Lemonade, Inc. (LMND)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$60.78+0.05%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, LMND is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 346% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Insurance - Property & Casualty
- Market cap
- $4.42B
- Employees
- 1,282
- IPO date
- 2020-06-08
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $60.78. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$13.64consensus
Range $12.96 – $14.31
vs price: +346% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$34.69consensus
Range $21.69 – $47.68
vs price: +75% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $61, LMND's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 6× p/s (4.1× the 1× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~329% near-term growth vs our ~54% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $14 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $44–$80. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
5.6x
peer 1.4x · own history —
Premium
4.1x peer
Growth the price needs
329%
our forecast 54%
Our fair value
$14.16
range $13.79 – $14.52
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensive12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 329% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 54%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
6th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.22x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish11 analysts, 36% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.56 → $-0.57 (-1.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 11 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 36% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 31.3% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$247.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$766.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,770.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth dropping below 15%
Why it matters: A drop below 15% would signal a slowdown in revenue growth for Lemonade. This could indicate a worsening trend in the financial sector.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 15%.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 15%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LMND yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting LMND and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If LMND reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-29), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on LMND and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping LMND and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits LMND and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-291mo agoItem 2.02
of this Report (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly provided by specific reference in such a filing.
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.