Lemonade, Inc. (LMND)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-09
$49.22-2.63%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Positive cash flow from operations sustained: TTM OCF -0.6M vs target >0.
Lemonade raised revenue guidance to about $1.2 billion for 2026. Revenue grew from $151 million in 2025-Q1 to $258 million in 2026-Q1. The company improved cash flow to positive $20.7 million in 2025-Q4. New insurance products and market expansion support growth.
Lemonade still loses money and may not improve profits soon. Cash flow turned negative again in 2026-Q1 at -$60 million. Revenue growth might slow below analyst expectations. The company faces high risk and uncertain management execution.
The price is about 42% above our fair value near $55. Analysts expect 55% revenue growth, which the market mostly prices in. Our fair value is 27% below the Street median, showing some skepticism.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA loss does not improve by 25% vs 2025
Breaks if: Operating cash flow remains negative over next 4 quarters
Revenue falls below $1.0 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation, as LMND is currently loss-making but is focused on achieving positive Adjusted EBITDA. The current thesis state is mixed, with some progress in revenue growth but ongoing risks.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, with a low expectations gap indicating that investors are not overly optimistic. However, LMND trades at a premium compared to its peers, suggesting that some growth potential is already reflected in the valuation.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued revenue growth and improvements in Adjusted EBITDA, as management has made progress in these areas. However, there is a high risk due to recent weak financial performance and a history of misses.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV, which could influence LMND's momentum. Additionally, management's ability to achieve positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2026 is crucial, as any guidance cuts could negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The launch of car insurance in Missouri supports revenue growth. This new product aims to increase revenue and In Force Premium growth. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, LMND's outlook is mixed, with potential for improvement but significant risks ahead. Not investment advice.