Lemonade, Inc. (LMND)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$44.92-1.08%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Lemonade, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	341.08M
EPS	—	-0.24
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.22B
EPS	—	-1.846
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.64B
EPS	—	-1.065

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA loss improves by more than 50% versus 2025	A primary condition in Lemonade, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Adjusted EBITDA loss improves >50% vs 2025.	Improving	Adjusted EBITDA loss does not improve by 25% vs 2025	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Positive cash flow from operations sustained	The company improved cash flow to positive $20.7 million in 2025-Q4.	Broken	Operating cash flow remains negative over next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $-3.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Positive cash flow from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026-3,400,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $1.2 billion in fiscal year 2026	Lemonade raised revenue guidance to about $1.2 billion for 2026.	Broken	Revenue falls below $1.0 billion in FY26	Revenue: $294.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.2B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026294,400,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 70a617d9-a7e0-4a98-8915-0bd6dedb04a5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.07

$-0.82 → $-1.07 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.64B

$1.62B → $1.64B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.82	$1,619,265,370	11 / 10
2026-07-25	$-0.82	$1,619,265,370	11 / 10
2026-07-26	$-0.82	$1,621,445,370	11 / 10
2026-07-27	$-0.82	$1,623,404,226	10 / 8
2026-07-28	$-0.82	$1,623,378,781	10 / 8
2026-07-29	$-0.82	$1,621,445,370	11 / 10
2026-07-30	$-0.82	$1,621,445,370	11 / 10
2026-07-31	$-0.93	$1,631,832,150	12 / 11
2026-08-01	$-0.89	$1,631,832,154	10 / 9
2026-08-02	$-1.04	$1,638,059,430	12 / 11
2026-08-03	$-1.04	$1,638,059,430	12 / 11
2026-08-04	$-1.04	$1,638,059,430	12 / 11
2026-08-05	$-1.04	$1,638,059,430	12 / 11
2026-08-06	$-1.01	$1,638,041,245	10 / 9
2026-08-07	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-08	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-09	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-10	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-12	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-13	$-1.07	$1,639,770,970	12 / 11
2026-08-14	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-15	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-16	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-17	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-18	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-19	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-20	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-21	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-22	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-23	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-24	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-25	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-26	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-27	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-28	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-29	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-30	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-31	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-01	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-02	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-03	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-04	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-05	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-06	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-07	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-08	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-09	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-10	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-11	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-12	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-13	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-14	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-15	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-16	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-17	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-18	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-19	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-20	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-21	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-22	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-23	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-24	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-25	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-26	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-27	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-28	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-29	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-30	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-10-01	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-10-02	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-10-03	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-10-04	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-10-05	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-10-06	$-1.07	$1,641,685,686	10 / 9
2026-10-07	$-1.07	$1,641,731,141	10 / 9
2026-10-08	$-1.07	$1,642,367,505	10 / 9
2026-10-09	$-1.07	$1,642,367,505	10 / 9
2026-10-10	$-1.07	$1,642,367,505	10 / 9
2026-10-11	$-1.07	$1,642,367,505	10 / 9
2026-10-12	$-1.07	$1,642,367,505	10 / 9
2026-10-13	$-1.07	$1,642,367,505	10 / 9
2026-10-14	$-1.06	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-15	$-1.06	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-16	$-1.06	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-17	$-1.06	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-18	$-1.07	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-19	$-1.07	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-20	$-1.07	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-21	$-1.07	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-22	$-1.07	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-23	$-1.07	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-24	$-1.07	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	4	3
2026-06-01	4	4	3
2026-07-01	4	6	3
2026-08-01	4	6	3
2026-09-01	3	6	2
2026-10-01	3	6	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 6 · prior Aug 19

$56.00 → $48.00-14.3%

$0$30.80$61.60

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA loss improves by more than 50% versus 2025Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Positive cash flow from operations sustainedPublished status: Broken
Revenue reaches about $1.2 billion in fiscal year 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-55.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Lemonade, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth business, not yet a proven earnings compounder, because it remains loss-making. The thesis state is watch: the signal has improved from cautious to mixed, while recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into Lemonade, Inc.

LMND trades at a 3.72 premium versus peers, with valuation described as expensive and the valuation model carrying low confidence. The priced-in assessment calls that premium justified, but the expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions may leave limited room for weaker execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and In Force Premium growth are strong, and Adjusted EBITDA losses narrowed from $47.0 million in Q1 2026 to $18.7 million in Q2. Management still expects positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2026, but this milestone is mixed, and the company has a recent history of a deep miss and missed its latest quarter. Growth spending is rising while management reports stable customer-acquisition efficiency, though the CFO transition and sector headwinds add uncertainty.

What Lemonade, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on continued growth and whether the company reaches positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2026. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts are also identified as a sector headwind. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the backdrop, but evidence on those forward outcomes is limited.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, LMND offers a high-risk growth thesis with real progress in growth and operating losses, but execution still needs to prove durable and recent performance remains weak. The central test is whether management meets its profitability milestone without sacrificing efficient growth. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	341.08M
EPS	—	-0.24
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.22B
EPS	—	-1.846
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.64B
EPS	—	-1.065

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.07

$-0.82 → $-1.07 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.64B

$1.62B → $1.64B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.82	$1,619,265,370	11 / 10
2026-07-25	$-0.82	$1,619,265,370	11 / 10
2026-07-26	$-0.82	$1,621,445,370	11 / 10
2026-07-27	$-0.82	$1,623,404,226	10 / 8
2026-07-28	$-0.82	$1,623,378,781	10 / 8
2026-07-29	$-0.82	$1,621,445,370	11 / 10
2026-07-30	$-0.82	$1,621,445,370	11 / 10
2026-07-31	$-0.93	$1,631,832,150	12 / 11
2026-08-01	$-0.89	$1,631,832,154	10 / 9
2026-08-02	$-1.04	$1,638,059,430	12 / 11
2026-08-03	$-1.04	$1,638,059,430	12 / 11
2026-08-04	$-1.04	$1,638,059,430	12 / 11
2026-08-05	$-1.04	$1,638,059,430	12 / 11
2026-08-06	$-1.01	$1,638,041,245	10 / 9
2026-08-07	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-08	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-09	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-10	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-12	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-13	$-1.07	$1,639,770,970	12 / 11
2026-08-14	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-15	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-16	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-17	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-18	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-19	$-1.01	$1,639,754,520	10 / 9
2026-08-20	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-21	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-22	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-23	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-24	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-25	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-26	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-27	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-28	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-29	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-30	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-08-31	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-01	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-02	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-03	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-04	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-05	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-06	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-07	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-08	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-09	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-10	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-11	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-12	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-13	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-14	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-15	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-16	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-17	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-18	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-19	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-20	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-21	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-22	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-23	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-24	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-25	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-26	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-27	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-28	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-29	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-09-30	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-10-01	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-10-02	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-10-03	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-10-04	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-10-05	$-1.07	$1,641,927,247	10 / 9
2026-10-06	$-1.07	$1,641,685,686	10 / 9
2026-10-07	$-1.07	$1,641,731,141	10 / 9
2026-10-08	$-1.07	$1,642,367,505	10 / 9
2026-10-09	$-1.07	$1,642,367,505	10 / 9
2026-10-10	$-1.07	$1,642,367,505	10 / 9
2026-10-11	$-1.07	$1,642,367,505	10 / 9
2026-10-12	$-1.07	$1,642,367,505	10 / 9
2026-10-13	$-1.07	$1,642,367,505	10 / 9
2026-10-14	$-1.06	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-15	$-1.06	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-16	$-1.06	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-17	$-1.06	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-18	$-1.07	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-19	$-1.07	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-20	$-1.07	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-21	$-1.07	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-22	$-1.07	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-23	$-1.07	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9
2026-10-24	$-1.07	$1,642,622,050	10 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings