Reading LIND? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LIND free→Reading LIND? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LIND free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.97. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $24 LIND trades at 2× p/s — 2.2× the 1× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $23 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted -3.85x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.12 → $-0.12 (+1.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$229.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$403.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,367.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show a recovery in the consumer sector. Lindblad works in this area.
Confirms:Consumer sector revenue growth is now positive after being negative for less than a year.
Disproves:Consumer sector revenue keeps falling. There are no signs of recovery.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LIND yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and the press release attached hereto are being furnished by the Company pursuant to Item 2.02 “Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liability of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LIND Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | full | elevated |
BKNG Booking Holdings | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MAR Marriott International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RCL Royal Caribbean Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | full | moderate |
HLT Hilton Worldwide | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to achieve tour revenues between $800 million and $850 million for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $183.18M in 2025-Q4 to $208.01M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the $800-$850M target for 2026. The trajectory shows delivering growth.
“The Company expects tour revenues of $800 - $850 million for 2026.”
“The Company expects tour revenues of $800 - $850 million for 2026.”
The company aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA between $130 million and $140 million for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income improved from -$5.50M in 2025-Q4 to $15.62M in 2026-Q1, supporting progress towards the $130-$140M adjusted EBITDA target for 2026. The trajectory is delivering.
The company increased its ownership in Natural Habitat, Inc. to 95% by acquiring an additional 5% interest.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The acquisition of an additional 5% interest in Natural Habitat increased Lindblad's ownership to 95%. This strategic move aligns with capital allocation priorities, but financial impact is not yet quantified.
“Lindblad acquired an additional 5% interest in Natural Habitat, bringing ownership to 95%.”
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 19, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Rear Admiral Keith Taylor (Ret.), Chief Maritime Officer of the Company, effective as of March 19, 2026 as an executive officer. Mr. Taylor, age 64, joined the Company in April 2025. Prior to joining the Company, Mr. Taylor was P…
and the press release attached hereto are being furnished by the Company pursuant to Item 2.02 “Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liability of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as a…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 3, 2026, Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) acquired an additional 5% interest in its subsidiary, Natural Habitat, Inc. (“Natural Habitat”), from Ben Bressler, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Natural Habitat, bringing the Company’s total ownership of Natural Habitat to 95%. The acquisition was a result of the exercise of a put right by Mr. Bressler pursuant to the terms of a stockholders’ agreement executed originall…
and the press release attached hereto are being furnished by the Company pursuant to Item 2.02 “Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liability of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as a…
“The Company expects adjusted EBITDA of $130 - $140 million for 2026.”
“The Company expects adjusted EBITDA of $130 - $140 million for 2026.”