Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. (LIND)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$34.24-2.87%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	198.58M
EPS	—	-0.23
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	869.36M
Tour revenue	$830M–$860M	—
EPS	—	0.199
EBITDA	$130M–$140Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	949.28M
EPS	—	0.506

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $130-$140M adjusted EBITDA in 2026	A primary condition in Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $130-$140M adjusted EBITDA.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $119M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $30.0M in 2025-Q1 to $34.8M in 2026-Q1 (+16%) and from $24.8M in 2025-Q2 to $32.5M in 2026-Q2 (+31%). Management maintained full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance at $130-$140M, showing consistent delivery and stable outlook. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase ownership in Natural Habitat to 95%	They increased ownership in Natural Habitat to 95%.	Intact	Ownership stake falls below 90%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve $800-$850M tour revenue in 2026	A primary condition in Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $800-$850M total revenue.	Intact	Revenue falls below $745M in FY26	Revenue: $199.247M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $800-$850M total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026199,247,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 753bbb88-da9a-4df4-9df3-88429c4f208d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.91B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$906,104,550	2 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$906,104,550	2 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$906,104,550	2 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$905,893,610	2 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$905,893,610	2 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$905,893,610	2 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$905,893,610	2 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$905,893,610	2 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$905,893,610	2 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$905,893,610	2 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$910,773,610	2 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$922,822,750	2 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$922,822,750	2 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$922,496,286	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$922,496,286	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$922,496,286	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$922,496,286	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$922,496,286	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$927,344,000	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	1
2026-06-01	4	1
2026-07-01	4	1
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	4	2
2026-10-01	4	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 8 · prior Sep 9

$29.00 → $32.00+10.3%

$0$17.60$35.20

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $130-$140M adjusted EBITDA in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Increase ownership in Natural Habitat to 95%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve $800-$850M tour revenue in 2026Revenue: $199.247M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-focused business with a still-unproven earnings profile, rather than an established durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on track in management’s stated 2026 priorities, but the overall thesis state remains watch because recent performance sits below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc.

Valuation is slightly above peers, while the expectations gap is close to neutral and the priced-in assessment is justified with low fragility. Valuation has risen recently, so the market appears to recognize progress, but the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, tour revenue and adjusted EBITDA have grown year over year, and management raised its 2026 tour revenue guidance while keeping its adjusted EBITDA guidance unchanged. The repurchase plan is progressing, though no additional repurchases were reported after April through July. Earnings quality remains loss-making, and erratic surprises plus a high-miss-rate industry leave some risk despite a low estimated miss probability.

What Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on continued delivery against 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA priorities, and on whether recent growth can improve the loss-making earnings profile. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; continued strength from travel and leisure bellwethers such as BKNG, ABNB, and RCL could support the sector backdrop, while weaker results could remove that support.