Reading KVUE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KVUE free→
Kenvue (KVUE)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$18.45+1.07%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If KVUE cuts guidance on the next call, that could lead to a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Household & Personal Products
- Market cap
- $34.83B
- Employees
- 22,000
- IPO date
- 2023-01-04
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.45. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$17.79consensus
Range $17.46 – $19.20
vs price: +4% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$26.82consensus
Range $17.90 – $27.42
vs price: -31% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $18 KVUE trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 18× p/e peer median. Our $18 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $18–$19. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
18.4x
peer 17.5x · own history 17.3x
Premium
1.1x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
2%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$17.87
range $17.28 – $19.03
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 2% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
76th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.39x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
36th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated volatile grew net income 42% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=368).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +3.7% / 30d, n=9for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.31 → $0.32 (+3.7% / 30d). 6 raised, 1 cut, 9 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 14% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$74.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$251.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,763.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 22d
Watch for completion of merger with Kimberly-Clark
Why it matters: This merger is key for Kenvue's growth and future strategy. It could reshape the company.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The merger closes as planned in the second half of 2026.
Disproves:The merger may face delays from regulators or may be canceled.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KVUE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like PG, UL, and CL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting KVUE and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If KVUE raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2025-11-03), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If KVUE beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +23% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If KVUE cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2025-11-03), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like PG, UL, and CL start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping KVUE and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and, as a result, such information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific ref…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.