Reading KTCC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed because the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 76% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern suggests potential issues due to weak financials or fragile earnings quality. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.89. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.71 KTCC trades at 0× p/s, below its 5× p/s peer median. Our $16 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 76% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.08x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by strategy shifts. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$175.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$440.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,320.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it could signal a slowdown in the Information Technology sector. This may impact Key Tronic's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above its median.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KTCC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On May 5, 2026 , Key Tronic Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Form 8-K including the Exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KTCC Key Tronic Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AAPL Apple Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SNDK Sandisk | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
DELL Dell Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | elevated |
STX Seagate Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
End manufacturing in China and refocus on sourcing and procurement to support global locations.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The plan to modify China-based operations was announced, but financials show a decline in revenue from $131.6M in 2025-Q1 to $89.6M in 2026-Q3, indicating limited progress in offsetting the impact of this strategic shift.
“The Company will end its manufacturing operations in its China-based facility.”
Focus on higher volume manufacturing and incur additional severance charges.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The restructuring of the Juarez facility is expected to incur $2.5 to $3.5 million in additional charges. However, operating income remains negative, declining from $4.4M in 2025-Q1 to -$0.2M in 2026-Q3, indicating limited progress in achieving cost efficiencies.
“The Company has been restructuring its facility in Juarez, Mexico to focus on higher volume manufacturing.”
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On February 3, 2026 , Key Tronic Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 27, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Form 8-K including the Exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities…
COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT OR DISPOSAL ACTIVITIES On December 19, 2025, Key Tronic Corporation ("the Company") committed to a plan to modify its China-based operations. The Company will end its manufacturing operations in its China-based facility and instead intends to refocus operations in China on sourcing and procurement activities intended to support its remaining global locations (the "Plan"). The Company will continue to manufacture certain of its existing and future demand at one of it…
REGULATION FD DISCLOSURE As previously disclosed, the Company has been restructuring its facility in Juarez, Mexico to focus on higher volume manufacturing. In connection with this restructuring and related headcount reductions, the Company has incurred severance charges in prior periods. The Company expects to incur approximately $2.5 to $3.5 million in additional charges during its second fiscal quarter related to severance at its Mexico based facility. This is expected to provide approxima…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On November 4, 2025 , Key Tronic Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 27, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Form 8-K including the Exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities…