Reading HLLY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HLLY free→Reading HLLY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HLLY free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, HLLY is performing typically. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.55 HLLY trades at 12× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $3.06 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $4.00–$8.00. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.17x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.12 → $0.12 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$203.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$562.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,442.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects consumer spending. Strong growth may boost Holley, Inc. sales.
Confirms:GDP growth reported above 2% for Q1 2026.
Disproves:GDP growth reported below 2% for Q1 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HLLY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 26, 2026, Holley Inc. (the “Company”) announced that its Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program that authorizes the Company to repurchase up to $25 million of the Company’s common stock. Stock repurchases under the program may be made from time to time on the open market, in privately negotiated transactions or in any other manner that complies with applicable securities laws, at the discretion of the Company. Open market repurchases may be made in accorda…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$4.00 – $8.00 (median $4.50) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-07
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HLLY Holley, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Holley is focusing on portfolio optimization to adjust net sales by $15 million.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Holley plans a $15 million adjustment to net sales through portfolio optimization. Revenue decreased from $155.4 million in 2025-Q4 to $147.3 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in growth. The focus on optimization is newly emphasized, with no substantive delivery yet.
“We are updating full-year guidance to reflect an anticipated $15 million adjustment to net sales...”
Holley has set a capital expenditures guidance range of $15 to $20 million for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Holley has maintained its capital expenditures guidance at $15 to $20 million for 2026. The consistency in guidance suggests a stable capital allocation strategy, but actual capex figures are not disclosed, limiting assessment of delivery.
“Capital Expenditures $15 - $20 million.”
“Capital Expenditures $15 - $20 million.”
Holley announced a share repurchase program authorizing up to $25 million in buybacks.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Holley announced a $25 million share repurchase program. This initiative is aimed at capital allocation, but no buybacks have been reported yet, indicating the program is in its early stages with no substantive delivery.
“Holley announced that its Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program...”
Why it matters: Interest rate changes affect consumer spending. A rate hike could hurt sales.
Confirms:FOMC raises rates by 25 basis points or more.
Disproves:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Why it matters: This report shows retail sales trends. Strong sales could help Holley, Inc. revenue.
Confirms:Retail sales growth above 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline or growth below 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: More people are filing for unemployment. This could mean the economy is weak. It might hurt how much people spend.
Confirms:Weekly claims fall below 200,000.
Disproves:Weekly claims rise above 300,000.
of this Report, including Exhibit 99.1, attached hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or Securities Act of 1933, as amended, expect as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. After serving as Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary for four years with Holley Inc. (the “Company”), Carly Kennedy will be departing from her position to pursue other opportunities. On April 7, 2026, the Company and Ms. Kennedy mutually agreed that, in order to support an orderly transition and to assist the Company w…
of this Report, including Exhibit 99.1, attached hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Amendment of Employment Agreement On December 10, 2025, Holley Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an amendment to the employment agreement with Matthew Stevenson, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, dated as of May 13, 2023. The amendment to Mr. Stevenson’s employment agreement provides that, effective January 1, 2026, Mr. Stevenso…