Holley, Inc. (HLLY)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.49-4.23%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Holley, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.39 → 0.39 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	160.11M
EPS	—	0.094
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$610M–$640M	625.32M
EPS	—	0.409
Capital expenditure	$15M–$20M	—
EBITDA	$127M–$137Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	653.27M
EPS	—	0.388

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital spending stays between $15M and $20M in FY26	A supporting condition in Holley, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is between $15 million and $20 million.	Intact	Capex falls below $15 million or exceeds $20 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $6.169M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $15 million and $20 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20266,169,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 consecutive quarters including 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1, and 2026-Q2 filings. Capital expenditures guidance increased from $10-$14 million in 2025 to $15-$20 million in 2026 and has remained stable. Management is maintaining disciplined capex spending consistent with prior guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches at least $610 million in FY26	A primary condition in Holley, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $610 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $590 million in FY26	Revenue: $172.007M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $610 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026172,007,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 277c8bc9-242f-4594-9127-1f9d8b9bb7f0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Core business net sales grew 3.2% to $172.0 million in 2026-Q2 from $166.7 million in 2025-Q2, excluding divested businesses. Management completed sale of non-core Restoration brands and expects portfolio rebalancing to reduce SKUs by over 11,000 and generate $15 million incremental cash. The trajectory shows delivering progress on simplifying operations and supporting growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Share repurchase program executes up to $25 million	It also started a $25 million stock buyback program.	Intact	No meaningful buybacks executed within 12 months	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 disclosures including 2026-Q2 earnings and May 2026 8-K. The company repurchased about $2.0 million of stock in 2026-Q2 under a Board-authorized program of up to $25 million. The trajectory shows active but measured execution of share repurchases. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.39

$0.39 → $0.39 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.65B

$0.65B → $0.65B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.39	$651,513,100	5 / 7
2026-07-25	$0.39	$651,484,870	7 / 9
2026-07-26	$0.39	$651,484,870	7 / 9
2026-07-27	$0.39	$651,513,100	5 / 7
2026-07-28	$0.39	$651,513,100	5 / 7
2026-07-29	$0.39	$651,513,100	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$0.39	$651,484,870	7 / 9
2026-07-31	$0.39	$651,484,870	7 / 9
2026-08-01	$0.39	$651,513,100	5 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.39	$651,484,870	7 / 9
2026-08-03	$0.39	$651,484,870	7 / 9
2026-08-04	$0.39	$651,484,870	7 / 9
2026-08-05	$0.39	$651,484,870	7 / 9
2026-08-06	$0.39	$651,484,870	7 / 9
2026-08-07	$0.40	$651,816,537	5 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.41	$651,719,310	7 / 9
2026-08-09	$0.41	$651,719,310	7 / 9
2026-08-10	$0.40	$651,816,537	5 / 7
2026-08-12	$0.40	$651,816,537	5 / 7
2026-08-13	$0.40	$651,816,537	5 / 7
2026-08-14	$0.40	$651,816,537	5 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.40	$651,816,537	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.40	$651,816,537	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.40	$651,816,537	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.40	$651,816,537	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.40	$651,816,537	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-13	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-14	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-15	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.39	$651,739,670	5 / 7
2026-09-17	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-09-18	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-09-19	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-09-20	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-09-21	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-09-22	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-09-23	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-09-24	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-09-25	$0.39	$653,087,954	5 / 7
2026-09-26	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-09-27	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-09-28	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-09-29	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-09-30	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-10-01	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-10-02	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-10-03	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-10-04	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-10-05	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-10-06	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-10-07	$0.39	$653,082,129	5 / 7
2026-10-08	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7
2026-10-18	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7
2026-10-19	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7
2026-10-20	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7
2026-10-21	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7
2026-10-22	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7
2026-10-23	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7
2026-10-24	$0.39	$653,265,504	5 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	2
2026-06-01	6	2
2026-07-01	7	2
2026-08-01	7	3
2026-09-01	6	3
2026-10-01	6	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital spending stays between $15M and $20M in FY26Capital expenditures: $6.169M
Revenue reaches at least $610 million in FY26Revenue: $172.007M
Share repurchase program executes up to $25 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Holley, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a smaller-cap business with an improvement-led multi-year view, rather than a clear-cut durable growth story. The thesis is on watch: core sales have grown and debt is being reduced, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Holley, Inc.

The valuation evidence points to HLLY being cheap versus peers, with the model showing a negative expectations gap and no flagged signs of fragile pricing. However, recent company momentum has weakened, so the low relative valuation sits alongside concerns about execution and performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results face some risk: earnings surprises are trending down, although the stated miss risk is low. Over the multi-year view, portfolio simplification, core sales growth, and debt repayments support the case for progress, but management execution is rated neutral and those efforts have mixed status.

What Holley, Inc. hinges on

The next call matters: a guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while the evidence does not establish that this will happen. Over the coming quarters, results and guidance from sector peers GPC, BWA, and APTV may signal whether the broader sector backdrop remains supportive.