Reading HGV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HGV free→Reading HGV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HGV free→
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If HGV reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that could lead to a credibility hit. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $51.16. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $51 HGV trades at 17× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $57 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $40–$55. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 11% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.38x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.21 → $1.09 (-10.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.7% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$197.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$390.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,848.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Increased buybacks show strong cash flow and a commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:Total share repurchases in Q2 exceed $150 million.
Disproves:Share repurchases fall below $100 million in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HGV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 2, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (the “Company”), and certain entities managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (the “Selling Stockholders”), entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Wells Fargo Securities, LLC (the “Representative”), as representative of the several underwriters (the “Underwriters”), in connection with the offer and sale by the Selling Stockholders (the “Offering”) of 5,0…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$40.00 – $55.00 (median $51.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HGV Hilton Grand Vacations | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BKNG Booking Holdings | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MAR Marriott International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RCL Royal Caribbean Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | moderate |
HLT Hilton Worldwide | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Raise full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.225 billion to $1.265 billion.
Focus on increasing cash from operations to support financial stability.
Continue share repurchase program with $237 million remaining availability.
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: Changes in credit terms can impact financial flexibility. It affects growth plans.
Confirms one read:Credit agreement terms become more favorable for HGV.
Confirms the other:Credit agreement terms worsen or become more restrictive.
Why it matters: Good revenue growth shows demand is coming back and the company is doing well.
Confirms:Reported revenue growth exceeds 3% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Reported revenue growth remains negative year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Hilton Grand Vacations. A drop below 5% signals trouble.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stays above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: More deferrals may cause project delays and hurt revenue.
Confirms:Net construction deferrals in Q2 exceed $25 million.
Disproves:Net construction deferrals in Q2 are less than $10 million.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows good cost management. This helps overall profits.
Confirms:Operating income was over $100M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income was under $100M in Q2.
Why it matters: Continued buybacks signal confidence in the company's value and support share price.
Confirms:The company repurchases at least $100 million in shares in Q2 2026.
Disproves:No big share buybacks happen in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher cash from operations supports growth plans. It shows financial health.
Confirms:Cash from operations reported above $150M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations reported below $150M in Q2.
Why it matters: Improving revenue growth in the sector can boost HGV's performance and outlook.
Confirms one read:Consumer sector revenue growth exceeds 4% in the next quarter.
Confirms the other:Consumer sector revenue growth falls below 2% in the next quarter.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 20, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations Trust I LLC (the “Borrower”), a subsidiary of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (the “Company”), entered into Omnibus Amendment No. 5, dated as of May 20, 2026 (the “Amendment”) to the Amended and Restated Receivables Loan Agreement, dated as of May 3, 2022 (as previously amended, the “Amended and Restated Receivables Loan Agreement”), by and among the Borrower, as borrower, Computershare Trust Company, N.A., as sec…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information provided in
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 6, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (the “Company”) held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s stockholders approved, among other items, an amendment (the “Amendment”) to the Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. 2023 Omnibus Incentive Plan (the “2023 Omnibus Plan”). The Amendment added 1…