Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$35.89-3.21%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hilton Grand Vacations’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-7.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.55 → 5.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.46B
EPS	—	1.696
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.48B
EPS	—	4.781
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	5.7B
EPS	—	5.135

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Full-year Adjusted EBITDA of about $1.245 billion	Hilton Grand Vacations raised its full-year EBITDA guidance to $1.245 billion.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $1.185 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA attributable to stockholders grew from $249M in 2026-Q1 to $265M in 2026-Q2. Management raised full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance from $1.185-$1.225B in 2025-Q4 to $1.225-$1.265B in 2026-Q1 and reiterated it in 2026-Q2, indicating delivery and confidence in growth and margin expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income near $74 million per quarter	Operating income improved to $74 million recently.	Broken	Operating income falls below $50 million next quarter	Operating income: $153M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $74 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026153,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income rose from $43M in 2025-Q2 to $74M in 2026-Q1 but declined to $74M in 2026-Q2 from $93M in 2025-Q4. Management emphasizes disciplined cost management supporting EBITDA growth, showing mixed but generally improving operating income trends consistent with the priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth near 9% per year	A primary condition in Hilton Grand Vacations's published investment case. The stated target is >= 8.7% YoY.	Broken	Revenue growth falls below 7% next year	Revenue growth: 7.27% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 8.7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20267.266983 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7080f994-528e-4099-acbf-bd0a94b7e632. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased from $1.148B in 2025-Q1 to $1.285B in 2026-Q1 and from $1.266B in 2025-Q2 to $1.358B in 2026-Q2, reflecting growth driven by tour increases and segment expansion. Management's statements align with the revenue growth trajectory, indicating delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Repurchase $150 million in shares per quarter	The company repurchased 3.3 million shares for $150 million in the last quarter.	Intact	Repurchases fall below $100 million next quarter	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company repurchased 3.5M shares for $150M in 2025-Q4, 3.3M shares for $150M in 2026-Q1, and 3.1M shares for $150M in 2026-Q2, consistently returning capital to shareholders under the 2025 Repurchase Plan, demonstrating ongoing execution. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.13

$5.52 → $5.13 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.70B

$5.87B → $5.70B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.52	$5,867,152,100	9 / 8
2026-07-25	$5.71	$5,906,174,685	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$5.52	$5,890,516,170	9 / 8
2026-07-27	$5.52	$5,890,527,849	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$5.52	$5,890,516,170	9 / 8
2026-07-29	$5.52	$5,890,516,170	9 / 8
2026-07-30	$5.52	$5,890,527,849	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$5.52	$5,890,516,170	9 / 8
2026-08-01	$5.59	$5,879,077,849	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$5.55	$5,858,735,837	6 / 6
2026-08-03	$5.55	$5,858,735,837	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$5.55	$5,858,681,670	9 / 8
2026-08-05	$5.71	$5,870,175,420	9 / 8
2026-08-06	$5.66	$5,880,106,430	9 / 8
2026-08-07	$5.55	$5,858,735,837	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$5.71	$5,870,175,420	9 / 8
2026-08-09	$5.71	$5,870,175,420	9 / 8
2026-08-10	$5.55	$5,858,735,837	6 / 6
2026-08-12	$5.71	$5,870,175,420	9 / 8
2026-08-13	$5.55	$5,858,735,837	6 / 6
2026-08-14	$5.55	$5,858,735,837	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$5.55	$5,858,735,837	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$5.55	$5,858,735,837	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$5.55	$5,858,735,837	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$5.55	$5,858,735,837	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$5.55	$5,858,735,837	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$5.59	$5,811,944,634	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$5.59	$5,811,944,634	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$5.59	$5,811,944,634	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$5.59	$5,811,944,634	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$5.59	$5,814,437,714	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$5.59	$5,814,437,714	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$5.59	$5,814,437,714	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$5.59	$5,814,437,714	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$5.59	$5,814,437,714	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$5.59	$5,814,437,714	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$5.59	$5,814,437,714	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$5.59	$5,814,437,714	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$5.59	$5,814,437,714	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$5.59	$5,814,437,714	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$5.59	$5,814,437,714	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$5.59	$5,814,437,714	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$5.58	$5,809,750,214	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$5.58	$5,809,750,214	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$5.58	$5,809,750,214	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$5.58	$5,809,750,214	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$5.58	$5,809,750,214	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$5.58	$5,809,750,214	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$5.55	$5,790,222,412	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$5.55	$5,790,222,412	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$5.55	$5,790,222,412	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$5.55	$5,790,222,412	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$5.55	$5,790,222,412	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$5.55	$5,790,222,412	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$5.55	$5,790,222,412	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$5.55	$5,790,222,412	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$5.55	$5,790,222,412	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$5.55	$5,790,222,412	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$5.55	$5,790,222,412	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$5.55	$5,790,222,412	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$5.55	$5,790,222,412	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$5.55	$5,790,222,412	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$5.55	$5,790,222,412	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$5.28	$5,708,192,302	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$5.28	$5,708,192,302	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$5.28	$5,708,192,302	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$5.28	$5,708,192,302	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$5.28	$5,708,192,302	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$5.28	$5,708,192,302	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$5.28	$5,708,192,302	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$5.28	$5,708,192,302	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$5.28	$5,708,192,302	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$5.28	$5,708,192,302	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$5.28	$5,708,192,302	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$5.28	$5,708,192,302	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$5.28	$5,708,192,302	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$5.30	$5,716,837,601	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$5.30	$5,716,837,601	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$5.30	$5,716,837,601	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$5.30	$5,716,837,601	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$5.30	$5,716,837,601	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$5.30	$5,716,837,601	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$5.30	$5,716,837,601	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$5.30	$5,712,554,712	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$5.30	$5,712,554,712	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$5.18	$5,701,965,824	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$5.18	$5,701,965,824	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$5.18	$5,701,965,824	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$5.18	$5,700,240,735	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$5.18	$5,700,240,735	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$5.13	$5,700,240,735	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$5.13	$5,700,240,735	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	5	1
2026-06-01	4	6	1
2026-07-01	4	6	0
2026-08-01	4	7	0
2026-09-01	4	7	0
2026-10-01	4	7	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 19

$38.00New observation · no comparable prior

SusquehannaOct 15 · prior Aug 18

$50.00 → $39.00-22.0%

$0$27.50$55.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Full-year Adjusted EBITDA of about $1.245 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating income near $74 million per quarterPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth near 9% per yearPublished status: Broken
Repurchase $150 million in shares per quarterRequired source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hilton Grand Vacations outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

HGV is an execution-driven growth and capital-return story, with management priorities progressing across earnings, revenue, and share repurchases. The long-term thesis has turned mildly favorable, but recent results remain below the industry cohort and the overall state is still watch.

What's priced into Hilton Grand Vacations

The evidence rates HGV as expensive, while also indicating it is cheap versus peers, so the valuation picture is mixed. The priced-in assessment says current expectations are justified, with low fragility rather than a broad stack of valuation, execution, and market risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management has reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance and raised it earlier in the year, while quarterly Adjusted EBITDA and revenue have increased. Execution on stated priorities is on track, but erratic earnings surprises and recent peer misses remain risks; the evidence also notes a recent earnings beat.

What Hilton Grand Vacations hinges on

The next guidance update is a key swing factor: a cut would weaken the thesis, while continued delivery would support management’s growth and margin plans. Over the near term, results and guidance from hotel-sector peers may either sustain or weaken the sector tailwind; evidence on other forward drivers is limited.