Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-09
$40.27-0.69%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth near 9% per year: Q2 FY26 rev +7.0% vs 8.7% target.
Hilton Grand Vacations raised its full-year EBITDA guidance to $1.245 billion. Revenue grew 11% last year. The company repurchased 3.3 million shares for $150 million in the last quarter. Operating income improved to $74 million recently.
Margin pressures could reduce profits. Share dilution from new stock offerings may hurt returns. Revenue growth may slow below 8%.
The price is about 13% below our fair value near $60. Analysts expect about 9% revenue growth, which we agree with.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $1.185 billion in FY26
Continue to grow Adjusted EBITDA with disciplined execution and margin expansion, raising full-year 2026 guidance.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth bet with a focus on recovery. The current thesis state is weakened due to recent performance and management volatility.
The market currently prices HGV as expensive compared to its peers, reflecting a justified valuation despite the recent drop in company quality. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors may be cautious about future performance.
Fundamentals are likely to remain neutral in the near term, as management has reaffirmed guidance but faces risks from potential earnings misses. Recent financial performance has shifted to the lower half of its industry, suggesting challenges ahead.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA guidance while navigating sector challenges. Key factors include inflation trends and performance of major sector players like Amazon and Tesla.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss indicates potential revenue growth issues. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change reflects a decline in the reasons to own the company.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA attributable to stockholders grew from $249M in 2026-Q1 to $265M in 2026-Q2. Management raised full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance from $1.185-$1.225B in 2025-Q4 to $1.225-$1.265B in 2026-Q1 and reiterated it in 2026-Q2, indicating delivery and confidence in growth and margin expansion.
“The Company is reiterating its prior guidance for the full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA... $1.225 billion to $1.265 billion.”
“The Company is raising its prior guidance for the full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA... to $1.225 billion to $1.265 billion.”
“The Company expects full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA... to be in a range of $1.185 billion to $1.225 billion.”
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $50 million next quarter
Focus on improving operating income through margin expansion and cost discipline.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income rose from $43M in 2025-Q2 to $74M in 2026-Q1 but declined to $74M in 2026-Q2 from $93M in 2025-Q4. Management emphasizes disciplined cost management supporting EBITDA growth, showing mixed but generally improving operating income trends consistent with the priority.
“Operating income was $74 million in 2026-Q1 and $93 million in 2025-Q4.”
“Operating income was $74 million in 2026-Q1 compared to $43 million in 2025-Q2.”
“Operating income was $93 million in 2025-Q4 compared to $70 million in 2024-Q4.”
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 7% next year
Drive revenue growth through increased contract sales and segment revenue expansion.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased from $1.148B in 2025-Q1 to $1.285B in 2026-Q1 and from $1.266B in 2025-Q2 to $1.358B in 2026-Q2, reflecting growth driven by tour increases and segment expansion. Management's statements align with the revenue growth trajectory, indicating delivery.
“Total revenues were $1.358 billion, up from $1.266 billion in 2025-Q2.”
“Total revenues were $1.285 billion, up from $1.148 billion in 2025-Q1.”
“Total revenues were $1.333 billion, up from $1.284 billion in 2024-Q4.”
Breaks if: Repurchases fall below $100 million next quarter
Continue share repurchases under the 2025 Repurchase Plan to return capital to shareholders.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company repurchased 3.5M shares for $150M in 2025-Q4, 3.3M shares for $150M in 2026-Q1, and 3.1M shares for $150M in 2026-Q2, consistently returning capital to shareholders under the 2025 Repurchase Plan, demonstrating ongoing execution.
“During the second quarter, the Company repurchased 3.1 million shares for $150 million.”
“During the first quarter, the Company repurchased 3.3 million shares for $150 million.”
“During the fourth quarter, the Company repurchased 3.5 million shares for $150 million.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, HGV's outlook will depend on management execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.