Reading HGTY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HGTY free→Reading HGTY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HGTY free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with HGTY compared to sector peers being below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 310% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11, HGTY's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 45× p/e (4.1× the 11× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~310% near-term growth vs our ~15% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $2.61 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 310% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.75x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.02 → $-0.09 (-372.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 28.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$134.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$303.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,003.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can change how much people spend. This affects Hagerty's revenue.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease by more than 0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HGTY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Hagerty, Inc. (the "Company") announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026 by issuing a letter to its stockholders and a press release. The Company will also be holding a conference call on May 6, 2026 to discuss its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the Company's letter to its stockholders and press release are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2021-Q3, 2022-Q1, 2022-Q2, 2022-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HGTY Hagerty Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
CB Chubb Limited | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve an Adjusted EBITDA range of $236 million to $247 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has consistently guided for an Adjusted EBITDA range of $236 million to $247 million for 2026. However, the financials show a decline in operating income from $31.4M in 2025-Q4 to -$20.9M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards this target.
“Guidance: 'Adjusted EBITDA of $236 million to $247 million.'”
“Guidance: 'Adjusted EBITDA of $236 million to $247 million.'”
Management has set a revenue target range of $1.28 billion to $1.3 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company aims for a revenue range of $1.28B to $1.3B in 2026. However, revenue declined from $379.36M in 2025-Q4 to $311.83M in 2026-Q1, indicating a challenging trajectory towards this target.
Hagerty Inc. continues to emphasize its strategic partnership with Markel Group Inc.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Hagerty Inc. has emphasized its strategic partnership with Markel Group Inc. through a consummated fronting arrangement. This partnership is expected to support growth initiatives, though specific financial impacts are not detailed in the current financials.
“Material event: 'Hagerty, Inc. and Markel Group Inc. consummated the previously announced fronting arrangement.'”
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Hagerty's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the financial sector is below its usual level.
Disproves:Revenue growth is above its usual level.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Item 5.02(b) Departure of Directors . On April 13, 2026, Michael R. Heaton resigned from the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Hagerty, Inc. (the “Company”), effective immediately. Mr. Heaton served on the Board as the designee of Markel Group Inc. (“Markel”) pursuant to the Investor Rights Agreement as defined and described below. Mr. Heaton’s r…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 26, 2026, Hagerty, Inc. (the "Company") announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 by issuing a letter to its stockholders and a press release. The Company will also be holding a conference call on February 26, 2026 to discuss its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the Company's letter to its stockholders and press release are attached hereto as Exhibit…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On December 31, 2025, following receipt of required regulatory approvals, Hagerty, Inc. (the “ Company ” ), Markel Group Inc., a significant Company stockholder and longstanding strategic partner (“ Markel ” ), The Hagerty Group, LLC (“ OpCo ” ), Hagerty Insurance Agency, LLC ( “ HIA ”), Hagerty Reinsurance Limited (“ Hagerty Re ”), and Essentia Insurance Company ( “ Essentia ”) consummated the previously announced fronting arrangement by amending an…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 4, 2025, Hagerty, Inc. (the "Company") announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025 by issuing a letter to its stockholders and a press release. The Company will also be holding a conference call on November 4, 2025 to discuss its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. The full text of the Company's letter to its stockholders and press release are attached hereto as…
“Guidance: 'Total Revenue change of (12)% to (11)%.'”