Hagerty Inc (HGTY)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$15.58-1.33%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hagerty Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.59 → 0.59 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	337.01M
EPS	—	0.067
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.34B
EPS	—	0.028
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.49B
EPS	—	0.585

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA between $236M and $247M in FY26	A primary condition in Hagerty Inc's published investment case. The stated target is $236M to $247M.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $236M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance rose from $236M-$247M in 2026-Q1 to $270M-$280M in 2026-Q2, reflecting confidence in profit growth. The trajectory shows management is increasing expectations and delivering accordingly. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve revenue between $1.28B and $1.3B in FY26	A primary condition in Hagerty Inc's published investment case. The stated target is $1.28B to $1.3B.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $1.28B in FY26	Revenue: $354.822M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $1.28B to $1.3B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026354,822,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a278a7ce-1727-4b1c-87e7-96091cf0451c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain strategic partnership with Markel Group Inc.	The company benefits from a strong partnership with Markel.	Intact	Partnership with Markel ends or materially weakens	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.59

$0.57 → $0.59 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.49B

$1.48B → $1.49B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.57	$1,480,009,800	8 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-26	$0.57	$1,480,009,800	8 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-28	$0.57	$1,480,009,800	8 / 5
2026-07-29	$0.57	$1,480,009,800	8 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-31	$0.57	$1,480,009,800	8 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-04	$0.57	$1,480,009,800	8 / 5
2026-08-05	$0.57	$1,480,009,800	8 / 5
2026-08-06	$0.57	$1,480,009,800	8 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	$0.58	$1,481,155,200	8 / 5
2026-08-09	$0.58	$1,481,155,200	8 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-12	$0.58	$1,491,079,330	8 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	$0.58	$1,490,443,000	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$0.59	$1,490,443,000	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$0.59	$1,490,443,000	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$0.59	$1,490,443,000	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$0.59	$1,490,443,000	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$0.59	$1,490,443,000	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$0.59	$1,490,443,000	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$0.59	$1,490,443,000	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$0.59	$1,490,443,000	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$0.59	$1,491,109,667	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$0.59	$1,491,109,667	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$0.59	$1,491,109,667	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$0.59	$1,491,109,667	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$0.59	$1,491,109,667	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$0.59	$1,491,109,667	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$0.59	$1,491,109,667	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$0.59	$1,491,109,667	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$0.59	$1,491,109,667	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$0.59	$1,491,109,667	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$0.59	$1,491,109,667	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$0.59	$1,491,109,667	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$0.59	$1,491,109,667	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-12	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-13	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-14	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-15	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-16	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-17	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-25	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$0.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$0.59	$1,489,926,333	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$0.59	$1,489,926,333	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$0.59	$1,489,926,333	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$0.59	$1,489,926,333	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$0.59	$1,489,926,333	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$0.59	$1,489,926,333	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$0.59	$1,489,926,333	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$0.59	$1,489,926,333	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$0.59	$1,489,926,333	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$0.59	$1,489,926,333	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$0.59	$1,489,926,333	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$0.59	$1,490,643,000	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$0.59	$1,490,643,000	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$0.59	$1,490,643,000	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$0.59	$1,490,643,000	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$0.59	$1,490,643,000	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$0.59	$1,490,643,000	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$0.59	$1,490,643,000	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$0.59	$1,490,643,000	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$0.59	$1,490,643,000	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$0.59	$1,490,643,000	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$0.59	$1,490,643,000	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$0.59	$1,490,643,000	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	4	1
2026-06-01	3	4	1
2026-07-01	3	4	1
2026-08-01	4	4	1
2026-09-01	4	4	1
2026-10-01	4	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve Adjusted EBITDA between $236M and $247M in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve revenue between $1.28B and $1.3B in FY26Revenue: $354.822M
Maintain strategic partnership with Markel Group Inc.Qualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hagerty Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

HGTY is a growth-oriented insurance business, with a thesis tied to adding policies and expanding insurer partnerships. Its long-term thesis is intact, and recent performance is strong, though the sector backdrop is a headwind and the overall risk level is moderate.

What's priced into Hagerty Inc

The valuation model shows HGTY at a modest premium to peers, with expectations broadly aligned with the evidence and low valuation fragility. This suggests the market already reflects much of the recent operating strength, rather than a large gap between expectations and fundamentals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the recent earnings beat and higher 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance support the view that profit growth is progressing, while policy growth supports management’s longer-term expansion goal. Risk is moderate, but earnings surprises have been trending down and the company has a history of a deep miss, so delivery remains important.

What Hagerty Inc hinges on

Over the multi-year view, progress toward 3 million policies by 2030 and deeper insurer partnerships, including the planned Liberty/Safeco rollout, are key tests. Near term, a guidance cut after the recent increase would weaken credibility, while falling rates could weigh on the sector; continued strong results from sector bellwethers would be a favorable signal.