Hagerty Inc (HGTY)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-09
$13.26-0.82%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Hagerty serves a niche market with steady revenue near $1.3 billion in 2026. Profit targets are set at $236M to $247M EBITDA. The company benefits from a strong partnership with Markel. Its subscription model builds loyal customers and recurring income.
Revenue declined from $379M in Q4 2025 to $312M in Q1 2026. Earnings estimates have been cut recently, with EPS expected negative in 2026. The stock trades at a high PE of 50.5, well above peers at 15.3, signaling risk if growth stalls.
The price is about 50% below our fair value near $24, reflecting cautious analyst revenue growth of 2%. Our view is more optimistic on revenue and EBITDA targets but acknowledges recent earnings weakness.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $236M in FY26
Deliver adjusted EBITDA within the guided range of $236 million to $247 million for fiscal year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment thesis is centered on a stable management team with robust earnings quality. HGTY is positioned in the Financials sector, which has a favorable backdrop, but the current state is mixed due to recent performance fluctuations.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation with low fragility. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not be overly optimistic or pessimistic about HGTY's future performance compared to its peers.
Management has set ambitious goals, such as growing insurance policies and achieving higher adjusted EBITDA. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a low probability of missing future earnings expectations, which could impact sentiment.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV. If these companies continue to perform well, HGTY could benefit from sector momentum. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could pose risks to HGTY's growth outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The stock fell due to a secondary offering of 8.25 million shares. This offering may dilute shares and impact growth objectives. The overall market also showed a risk-off sentiment, which could further pressure the stock.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 from $236M-$247M to $270M-$280M, reflecting confidence in profit growth. This aligns with reported strong operating performance and premium growth, indicating the company is delivering on this financial target.
“Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to $270 million to $280 million for 2026.”
“Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $236 million to $247 million for 2026.”
“Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $236 million to $247 million for 2026.”
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $1.28B in FY26
Achieve total revenue in the range of $1.28 billion to $1.3 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management set a revenue target near $1.28B to $1.3B for 2026 with expected decline of 11-12%. Reported revenue grew from $311.8M in Q1 to $354.8M in Q2 2026, indicating progress toward the annual target despite the negative growth guidance. Trajectory is mixed given the guidance and reported quarterly revenue.
“Total Revenue change of (12)% to (11)% for 2026, implying $1.28B to $1.3B revenue target.”
Breaks if: Partnership with Markel ends or materially weakens
Overall, HGTY has shown improvement and stability, but it operates in a context where external factors could significantly influence its trajectory. Not investment advice.