Reading HAYW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HAYW free→Reading HAYW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HAYW free→NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of bellwethers like VRT, BE, and NVT. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 HAYW trades at 19× p/e, below its 33× p/e peer median. Our $24 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 40% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.69x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.25 → $0.25 (-0.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$103.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$319.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,404.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can signal economic weakness. This could hurt Hayward's sales.
Confirms:Weekly claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly claims fall below 250,000.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HAYW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Hayward Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the three months ended March 28, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electrical Components & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HAYW Hayward Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ETN Eaton Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
VRT Vertiv | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EMR Emerson Electric | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BE Bloom Energy Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing net sales by approximately 5% for Fiscal Year 2026.
Continue efforts to enhance gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
Aim to enhance operating income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sales growth could signal weakening demand in the pool industry.
Confirms:Q2 net sales grew less than 5% from last year.
Disproves:Q2 net sales grew more than 5% from last year.
Why it matters: Higher SG&A may show problems. This can hurt profits.
Confirms:SG&A expenses exceed 12% of net sales in Q2.
Disproves:SG&A expenses remain at or below 12% of net sales.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Hayward. This is important for its recovery.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 8% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 4% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Falling below this EPS level could show profit margin problems.
Confirms:Adjusted diluted EPS was less than $0.84.
Disproves:Adjusted diluted EPS was more than $0.84.
Why it matters: A drop in margin could reflect rising costs or pricing pressures.
Confirms:Gross profit margin reported below 46.5%.
Disproves:Gross profit margin reported at or above 46.5%.
Why it matters: Slower growth in operating income may mean there are issues in operations.
Confirms:Operating income growth was below 20% from last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth was 20% or more from last year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, Hayward Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purp…