Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW)

NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$12.67-0.31%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hayward Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.97 → 0.95 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	354.53M
EPS	—	0.317
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.18B
EPS	$0.84–$0.87non-GAAP	0.862
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.24B
EPS	—	0.952

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS guidance raised to $0.85 for 2026	The company raised its EPS guidance to $0.85 for 2026, showing stable management execution.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $0.84 for FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improvement in gross profit margins via operational efficiencies	Profit margins improve with gross profit rising from $105.3M to $118.7M and operating income increasing from $33.5M to $42.5M.	Broken	gross profit margin declines below prior year levels in FY26	Gross margin: 48.7% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain or improve gross profit margin in FY26. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Jul 29, 202648.700287 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4506da17-d0c3-4902-b0b0-c86ca6ef34bc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Gross profit margin improved from 46.0% in 2025-Q1 to 46.5% in 2026-Q1 (+50 bps), and was 48.7% in 2026-Q2 (-50 bps YoY due to tariffs). Margin expansion efforts show mixed results but management continues focus on operational efficiencies and price realization. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Enhance operating income through cost management	Profit margins improve with gross profit rising from $105.3M to $118.7M and operating income increasing from $33.5M to $42.5M.	Under Pressure	operating income falls below prior year levels in FY26	Operating income: $75.999M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain or improve operating income in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202675,999,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4506da17-d0c3-4902-b0b0-c86ca6ef34bc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income grew from $33.5M in 2025-Q1 to $42.5M in 2026-Q1 (+27%), and reached $76.0M in 2026-Q2 (+6% YoY). Management consistently highlights expense control and price realization as drivers. The trajectory shows steady operating income growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth of approximately 5% for Fiscal Year 2026	A primary condition in Hayward Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY revenue growth in FY26.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26	Revenue growth: 6.27% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY revenue growth in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20266.266626 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4506da17-d0c3-4902-b0b0-c86ca6ef34bc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $228.8M in 2025-Q1 to $255.2M in 2026-Q1 (+12%), and reached $318.4M in 2026-Q2 (+6% YoY). Management consistently emphasizes price realization and volume growth as drivers. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.95

$0.94 → $0.95 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.24B

$1.24B → $1.24B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.94	$1,238,386,809	5 / 7
2026-07-25	$0.94	$1,239,538,590	10 / 9
2026-07-26	$0.94	$1,239,538,590	10 / 9
2026-07-27	$0.94	$1,239,538,590	10 / 9
2026-07-28	$0.94	$1,238,386,809	5 / 7
2026-07-29	$0.94	$1,238,386,809	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$0.95	$1,239,427,480	9 / 9
2026-07-31	$0.97	$1,246,033,374	5 / 7
2026-08-01	$0.97	$1,246,033,374	5 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.97	$1,247,197,340	10 / 10
2026-08-03	$0.97	$1,247,197,340	10 / 10
2026-08-04	$0.97	$1,247,197,340	10 / 10
2026-08-05	$0.97	$1,247,197,340	10 / 10
2026-08-06	$0.97	$1,247,197,340	10 / 10
2026-08-07	$0.97	$1,246,811,152	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.97	$1,247,197,340	10 / 10
2026-08-09	$0.97	$1,247,197,340	10 / 10
2026-08-10	$0.97	$1,247,197,340	10 / 10
2026-08-12	$0.97	$1,246,811,152	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$0.97	$1,246,811,152	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$0.97	$1,246,811,152	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.97	$1,246,811,152	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.97	$1,246,811,152	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.97	$1,246,811,152	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.97	$1,246,811,152	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.97	$1,246,811,152	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.97	$1,247,366,708	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.97	$1,247,366,708	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.97	$1,247,366,708	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.97	$1,247,366,708	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.97	$1,247,366,708	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.97	$1,247,344,486	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.97	$1,247,344,486	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.97	$1,247,344,486	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.97	$1,247,344,486	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.97	$1,247,344,486	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.97	$1,247,344,486	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.97	$1,247,344,486	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.97	$1,247,344,486	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.97	$1,247,344,486	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.97	$1,247,344,486	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.97	$1,247,344,486	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.97	$1,247,344,486	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.97	$1,247,344,486	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.97	$1,247,344,486	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.97	$1,247,344,486	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.97	$1,247,344,486	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$0.97	$1,247,343,901	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$0.97	$1,247,232,790	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$0.97	$1,247,232,790	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$0.95	$1,237,966,346	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$0.95	$1,237,966,346	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$0.95	$1,237,966,346	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$0.95	$1,237,966,346	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$0.95	$1,237,926,930	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$0.95	$1,237,926,930	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$0.95	$1,237,926,930	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$0.95	$1,237,926,930	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$0.95	$1,237,926,930	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$0.95	$1,237,926,930	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$0.95	$1,237,926,930	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$0.95	$1,237,926,930	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$0.95	$1,237,926,930	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$0.95	$1,237,926,930	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$0.95	$1,237,926,930	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$0.95	$1,236,838,041	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	7
2026-06-01	4	7
2026-07-01	4	7
2026-08-01	4	7
2026-09-01	3	7
2026-10-01	3	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS guidance raised to $0.85 for 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Improvement in gross profit margins via operational efficienciesPublished status: Broken
Enhance operating income through cost managementPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth of approximately 5% for Fiscal Year 2026Revenue growth: 6.27%

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hayward Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented industrial business with improving recent results, rather than a proven steady compounder. Its multi-year view is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and earnings quality remains fragile.

What's priced into Hayward Holdings, Inc.

The valuation signal is cheap versus peers, with a medium-confidence model and a slightly negative expectations gap. The evidence labels pricing as justified, with low fragility, rather than showing that weak execution is being overlooked.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s repeated focus on revenue growth, margins, and operating income has been supported by growth in revenue and operating income, while gross margin faced tariff pressure in 2026-Q2. Guidance was reaffirmed in July, but the industry’s recent pattern of missed results and HAYW’s fragile earnings quality remain risks.

What Hayward Holdings, Inc. hinges on

A meaningful swing factor is whether management maintains guidance on the next call; a cut would weaken the near-term case. Over the multi-year view, continued revenue growth, better margins, and operating income growth matter, while results from industrial bellwethers ETN, VRT, and BE may signal whether sector momentum supports or pressures the business.