Reading GAIA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GAIA free→Reading GAIA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GAIA free→NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 54% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If GAIA cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.51. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.51 GAIA trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $5.41 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 54% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated weak grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.99x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 63% for the rest of the cohort, n=271).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.13 → $-0.13 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$255.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$609.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,390.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a smaller loss or a profit compared to the previous quarter.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a larger loss than the previous quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GAIA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference into any of the Company's filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, (the “Securities Act”)or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Movies & Entertainment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GAIA Gaia, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
NFLX Netflix | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DIS Walt Disney Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LYV Live Nation Entertainment | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TKO TKO Group Holdings | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Gaia aims to increase average revenue per user by 20-25% by the fourth quarter of 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Gaia aims to increase ARPU by 20-25% by 2026-Q4. Current financials do not provide specific ARPU figures, making it difficult to assess progress. The trajectory is unclear without further data.
“Gaia is targeting a 20-25% increase in ARPU for the fourth quarter of 2026.”
Gaia plans to reduce customer churn by approximately 20% by the fourth quarter of 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Gaia aims to reduce churn by 20% by 2026-Q4. Current financials do not provide specific churn data, making it difficult to assess progress. The trajectory is unclear without further data.
“Gaia is targeting an approximate 20% reduction in churn for the fourth quarter of 2026.”
Gaia remains focused on delivering positive operating and free cash flow.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $1.493 million in 2026-Q1, indicating some progress towards positive cash flow. However, net income remains negative, suggesting limited progress in achieving overall positive cash flow.
“We remain focused on delivering positive operating and free cash flow.”
Why it matters: If the Communication Services sector grows, it may help Gaia do better.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is getting better. This shows a possible recovery.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still negative. This means it is still declining.
and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference into any of the Company's filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, (the “Securities Act”)or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing.
Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 30, 2025 the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Gaia, Inc. (the “Company” or “Gaia”) appointed Yonathan Nuta, age 44, as Chief Operating Officer, effective October 30, 2025. Mr. Nuta will report to Ms. Medvedich, in her role as Chief Executive Officer of Gaia. Mr. Nuta has most recently served as Chief Product Officer at Babylon.com and Fabric.io . From October 2016 through May 2…
and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference into any of the Company's filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, (the “Securities Act”)or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing.
and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference into any of the Registrant’s filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing.
“As planned, we continued to deliver on positive free cash flow.”