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Cypherpunk Technologies Inc (CYPH)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$0.81+25.01%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
CYPH shows weak recent financial performance. Earnings quality is not assessable since it is unprofitable. Management's track record is volatile, and it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 77% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Market cap
- $69.22M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2017-03-31
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$0.46consensus
Range $0.46 – $0.46
vs price: +75% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratingmedium confidence
At $0.81 CYPH trades at 6× p/s — 1.8× the 3× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $0.44 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
6.1x
peer 3.3x · own history —
Premium
1.8x peer
Growth the price needs
84%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$0.44
range $0.44 – $0.44
WhyEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 84% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
9th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.58x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme capital-markets/rates.headwind-4.8%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$482.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,744.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,271.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for changes in the FOMC's interest rate policy
Why it matters: Interest rates can change how the financial sector works. This may impact Cypherpunk's operations.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates in the June 17 meeting.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged in the June 17 meeting.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CYPH yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like BLK, BX, and KKR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting CYPH and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CYPH beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +81% on the 2025-09-30 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like BLK, BX, and KKR start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping CYPH and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on CYPH and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits CYPH and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-141mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 14, 2026, Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release issued by the Company in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company, whether made before or af…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.