Reading CVGW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CVGW free→Reading CVGW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CVGW free→Consumer StaplesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, and management is volatile. The capital stance is unfriendly, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and CVGW trades below typical compared to peers. The valuation grid is empty, so there is no valuation read. What it hinges on is if CVGW cuts guidance on the next call. This would likely lead to a negative impact. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $26.09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
19 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated volatile grew net income 42% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=368).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$86.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$280.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,289.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Rising unemployment claims can show economic problems. This can hurt consumer spending.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims go over 300,000 for two weeks in a row.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims stay under 250,000 for two weeks in a row.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CVGW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
by reference. On the Closing Date, Merger Sub I merged with and into Calavo, pursuant to the provisions of the CCC and DGCL, with Calavo as the Surviving Corporation, and immediately following, the Surviving Corporation merged with and into Merger Sub II, with Merger Sub II as the Surviving Company in accordance with the applicable provisions of the CCC, the DGCL and the DLLCA. Accordingly, a change in control of Calavo occurred.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Staples (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CVGW Calavo Growers, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | — | elevated |
WMT Walmart | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | low |
PG Procter & Gamble | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | full | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Finalize the merger with Mission Produce, including regulatory approvals and integration.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The merger with Mission Produce has progressed with antitrust clearance obtained as of 2026-Q2. This indicates progress towards completion, aligning with management's stated priority.
“Calavo and Mission Produce announced antitrust clearance for the merger.”
“Calavo entered into a Merger Agreement with Mission Produce.”
“We are working towards completing the merger with Mission Produce.”
Continue to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share to shareholders.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share maintained at $0.20 from 2025-Q2 to 2026-Q1, consistent with management's commitment to stable capital allocation. This reflects a steady approach to shareholder returns.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income declined from $7.63M in 2025-Q2 to -$1.45M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in improving profitability. Despite management's focus, financial results show a negative trajectory.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects how much people spend. This impacts Calavo's sales.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is revised upward to above 2% in the third estimate.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is revised downward to below 1% in the third estimate.
Why it matters: Retail sales trends directly impact demand for Calavo's products. Strong sales can boost growth.
Confirms:Retail sales increase more than 0.5% month over month in the June report.
Disproves:Retail sales decline more than 0.5% month over month in the June report.
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing Calavo notified its principal trading market, the Nasdaq Global Select Market (“Nasdaq”), that the Mergers would be effective on May 28, 2026. On May 28, 2026, Nasdaq filed with the SEC a Notification of Removal from Listing and/or Registration Under Section 12(b) of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), on Form 25 to remove shares of Calavo Common Stock from…
Merger Consideration; Effect on Capital Stock Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, upon the execution, acknowledgement, delivery and filing of the certificate of merger with respect to the First Merger with the Office of the Secretary of State of California as provided under the CCC and the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware as provided under the DGCL (the “First Effective Time”), each share of common stock, par value $0.001 per share of Calavo (“Calavo Common Stock”) issued and outstan…
by reference. Resignation of Calavo Directors At the First Effective Time, all of the directors of Calavo ceased serving as directors of Calavo. In connection with the transactions contemplated by the Merger Agreement, B. John Lindeman, Farha Aslam, Marc L. Brown, Michael DiGregorio, Steven Hollister, Kathleen M. Holmgren, J. Link Leavens, and Adriana Mendizabal tendered their resignations as members of the board of directors of Calavo and from all committees of the board on which they former…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. In connection with the closing of the Mergers, Calavo repaid all obligations outstanding under, and concurrently terminated, the Credit Agreement, dated as of June 26, 2023 (as amended, restated, amended and restated, supplemented or otherwise modified from time to time), by and among Calavo, certain subsidiaries of Calavo as borrowers, the banks and other financial institutions or entities party thereto from time to time, and Wells Fargo Bank,…
“The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share.”
“We continue to pay a dividend of $0.20 per share.”
“Dividend of $0.20 per share was declared.”
“Maintaining a dividend of $0.20 per share.”
“We expect margin discipline to help navigate a dynamic pricing environment.”
“Focus on improving operating income through cost management.”
“Enhancing operating income remains a priority.”