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Castle Biosciences, Inc. (CSTL)
NASDAQHealth CareDiagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$20.46-0.97%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed because the company was unprofitable over the past year. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CSTL trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 57% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern suggests potential issues due to weak financials or fragile earnings quality. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Diagnostics & Research
- Market cap
- $626.62M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2019-06-26
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $20.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$48.05consensus
Range $26.28 – $101.05
vs price: -57% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$129.87consensus
Range $95.88 – $163.87
vs price: -84% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $21 CSTL trades at 2× p/s, below its 4× p/s peer median. Our $48 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
1.7x
peer 4.0x · own history —
Premium
0.4x peer
Growth the price needs
-57%
our forecast 10%
Our fair value
$48.13
range $26.28 – $100.23
WhyValuation methods disagreeEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 57% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
2nd pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -3.76x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised -29.8% / 30d, n=8for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.31 → $-0.40 (-29.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 6 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 65.2% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$198.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$587.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,783.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 earnings results on August 3, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth is back to being positive compared to last year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows continued revenue decline or losses.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CSTL yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TMO, DHR, and IDXX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting CSTL and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CSTL and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If CSTL reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-06), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like TMO, DHR, and IDXX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping CSTL and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits CSTL and other Healthcare names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Castle Biosciences, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained or incorporated in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.