Castle Biosciences, Inc. (CSTL)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-10-23

$33.08-0.33%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Castle Biosciences, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	93.95M
EPS	—	-0.356
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	373.21M
EPS	—	-1.258
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	413.76M
EPS	—	-0.913

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Net income moves toward positive territory	The company aims to improve its operating income and net income.	Improving	Net loss worsens beyond -$14.52 million over next year	Net income: $-2.06M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net loss less negative than -$14.52 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026-2,060,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4da21296-082e-46a6-acd2-095e1cfcf159. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves from negative levels	The company aims to improve its operating income and net income.	Intact	Operating loss worsens beyond -$18.41 million over next year	Operating income: $-3.07M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss less negative than -$18.41 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026-3,070,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4da21296-082e-46a6-acd2-095e1cfcf159. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
2026 revenue reaches at least $345 million	A primary condition in Castle Biosciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $345 million.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $345 million in 2026	Revenue: $103.546M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $345 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026103,546,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4da21296-082e-46a6-acd2-095e1cfcf159. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.91

$-0.96 → $-0.91 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.41B

$0.39B → $0.41B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.96	$392,905,330	9 / 9
2026-07-25	$-0.96	$392,905,330	9 / 9
2026-07-26	$-0.96	$392,905,330	9 / 9
2026-07-27	$-0.96	$392,905,330	9 / 9
2026-07-28	$-0.96	$392,905,330	9 / 9
2026-07-29	$-0.96	$392,905,330	9 / 9
2026-07-30	$-0.96	$392,916,356	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$-0.96	$392,916,356	6 / 6
2026-08-01	$-0.96	$392,916,356	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$-1.01	$401,360,780	9 / 9
2026-08-03	$-1.01	$401,693,275	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$-1.01	$401,693,275	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$-1.02	$409,097,780	9 / 9
2026-08-06	$-1.02	$409,097,780	9 / 9
2026-08-07	$-1.01	$401,693,275	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$-0.99	$409,097,780	9 / 9
2026-08-09	$-0.99	$409,097,780	9 / 9
2026-08-10	$-1.01	$401,693,275	5 / 6
2026-08-11	$-0.99	$409,097,780	9 / 9
2026-08-12	$-1.01	$401,693,275	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$-1.01	$401,693,275	5 / 6
2026-08-14	$-1.01	$401,693,275	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$-1.01	$401,693,275	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$-1.01	$401,693,275	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$-1.01	$401,693,275	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$-1.01	$401,693,275	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$-1.01	$401,693,275	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$-0.99	$410,335,000	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-10-12	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-10-13	$-0.94	$412,796,125	6 / 6
2026-10-14	$-0.91	$413,738,000	6 / 6
2026-10-15	$-0.91	$413,738,000	6 / 6
2026-10-16	$-0.91	$413,738,000	6 / 6
2026-10-17	$-0.91	$413,738,000	6 / 6
2026-10-18	$-0.91	$413,738,000	6 / 6
2026-10-19	$-0.91	$413,738,000	6 / 6
2026-10-20	$-0.91	$413,739,125	6 / 6
2026-10-21	$-0.91	$413,763,000	6 / 6
2026-10-22	$-0.91	$413,763,000	6 / 6
2026-10-23	$-0.91	$413,763,000	6 / 6
2026-10-24	$-0.91	$413,763,000	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	0	0
2026-06-01	9	0	0
2026-07-01	9	0	0
2026-08-01	9	0	0
2026-09-01	9	0	0
2026-10-01	9	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net income moves toward positive territoryNet income: $-2.06M
Operating income improves from negative levelsOperating income: $-3.07M
2026 revenue reaches at least $345 millionRevenue: $103.546M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-57.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Castle Biosciences, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an emerging growth business with elevated risk, not yet a proven profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: recent growth and guidance support progress, but financial performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Castle Biosciences, Inc.

The valuation evidence points to CSTL as cheap versus peers, while the model has low confidence and shows a negative expectations gap. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not indicate that expectations are especially stretched.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management has raised 2026 revenue guidance and core test volumes grew 36% in Q1 and 32% in Q2 year over year. Adjusted EBITDA moved from negative in Q1 to positive in Q2, but full-year profitability remains a goal rather than an established result. Recent earnings included two beats and one in-line report, though results have been erratic and risk is elevated.

What Castle Biosciences, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued core test growth and delivery of positive Adjusted EBITDA through the rest of 2026. A guidance reversal would damage credibility, while weaker jobs data could pressure cyclical and healthcare names; continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.