Reading CPS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPS free→Reading CPS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPS free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with CPS trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 85% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29 CPS trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $201 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 85% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.26x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.74 → $0.58 (-21.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$210.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$500.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,246.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if losses continue or if there is improvement. Investors will react to changes in revenue and profit.
Confirms:Q2 earnings show a bigger loss than expected. This means performance is getting worse.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows a smaller loss or a profit. This means recovery is happening.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CPS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026 , Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its results of operations and financial condition for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, and will host a conference call to discuss those preliminary results on May 7, 2026 at 9 a.m. ET. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99 hereto and incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CPS Cooper-Standard Holdings, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 8 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | full | moderate |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to meet or surpass its sales and profitability targets for 2026 as outlined in its guidance.
The company plans to keep its capital expenditures within the $55-$65 million range for the fiscal year 2026.
The company aims to manage its net cash taxes within the $30-$35 million range for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much consumers are spending. This affects Cooper-Standard's sales.
Confirms one read:Retail sales rise by more than 1% from last month. This suggests stronger consumer demand.
Confirms the other:Retail sales fall by more than 1% from last month. This shows weaker consumer demand.
Why it matters: GDP data will show the health of the economy. A strong GDP could boost consumer spending.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is above 2% for Q1 2026. This indicates the economy is recovering.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is below 1% for Q1 2026. This shows the economy is weak.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. Issuance of New First Lien Notes On March 4, 2026 (the “Settlement Date”), Cooper-Standard Automotive Inc. (the “Issuer”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. (the “Company”), issued $1,100,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 9.250% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”) pursuant to an Indenture, dated as of March 4, 2026 (the “Indenture”), by and among the Issuer, the Guarantors (as defined below) and U.…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information included, or incorporated by reference, in
Other Events. Redemption of Existing Notes On the Settlement Date, the Issuer completed, using the proceeds from the offering of the Notes, together with cash on hand, the previously announced redemptions of (i) all $616.9 million aggregate principal amount of its 13.50% Cash Pay / PIK Toggle Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2027 (the “Existing First Lien Notes”) at a redemption price of 102.250% of the principal amount thereof, plus accrued and unpaid interest thereon to, but excluding, t…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026 , Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its results of operations and financial condition for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, and will host a conference call to discuss those preliminary results on February 13, 2026 at 9 a.m. ET. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99 hereto and incorporated by reference herein.