NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-07-23
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CPS represents a speculative growth investment with a medium confidence level. The current thesis state is intact, but the company is loss-making and has a history of earnings misses, which adds uncertainty.
The market seems to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that CPS is viewed as cheap compared to its peers. However, there is a divergence in valuation, as CPS carries a premium over some competitors.
Management has set ambitious sales and profitability targets for 2026, but progress has been mixed. The elevated risk of missing earnings again could impact future performance, especially given the company's recent history.
The future of CPS hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like ORLY, AZO, and HSAI. Positive earnings and guidance from these companies could provide a tailwind, while negative results could lead to further challenges.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CPS's performance will depend heavily on external sector dynamics and its ability to meet management targets. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-07-23
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if losses continue or if there is improvement. Investors will react to changes in revenue and profit.
Confirms:Q2 earnings show a bigger loss than expected. This means performance is getting worse.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows a smaller loss or a profit. This means recovery is happening.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Cooper Standard meets its sales and profit goals for 2026.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows sales of at least $700 million. Adjusted EBITDA is above $50 million.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows sales under $680 million. Adjusted EBITDA is under $45 million.
Why it matters: Keeping taxes in this range helps manage costs. It is crucial for overall financial health.
Confirms:Net cash taxes reported within the $30-$35M range for 2026.
Disproves:Net cash taxes exceed $35M, indicating higher costs.
Why it matters: A positive change in sector revenue growth could signal a recovery. This is important for Cooper-Standard's sales.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth reported below -2% year over year.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much consumers are spending. This affects Cooper-Standard's sales.
Confirms one read:Retail sales rise by more than 1% from last month. This suggests stronger consumer demand.
Confirms the other:Retail sales fall by more than 1% from last month. This shows weaker consumer demand.
Why it matters: GDP data will show the health of the economy. A strong GDP could boost consumer spending.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is above 2% for Q1 2026. This indicates the economy is recovering.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is below 1% for Q1 2026. This shows the economy is weak.
Why it matters: New business awards suggest future sales growth. There is market demand for Cooper Standard's products.
Confirms:Net new business awards were above $150 million in the second quarter.
Disproves:Net new business awards were below $100 million in the second quarter.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows Cooper Standard is managing its investments well.
Confirms one read:Capital spending was within the $55-$65 million range for 2026.
Confirms the other:Capital spending was outside the $55-$65 million range for 2026.
