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Cencora (COR)
NYSEHealth CareMedical DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$281.41-0.01%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If COR cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Distribution
- Market cap
- $54.80B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2001-12-28
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $281.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$295.87consensus
Range $272.40 – $328.36
vs price: -5% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$521.87consensus
Range $470.55 – $600.85
vs price: -46% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $281 COR trades at 18× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $299 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $331–$412. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
18.2x
peer 19.2x · own history 17.1x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
-6%
our forecast 15%
Our fair value
$298.92
range $272.90 – $331.75
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
99th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.89x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
26th pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile41 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish11 analysts, 86% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $4.37 → $4.35 (-0.4% / 30d). 6 raised, 4 cut, 11 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.2% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$103.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$257.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,245.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 22d
Watch for adjusted diluted EPS guidance raised above $17.90
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance would signal strong financial performance and growth potential.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Adjusted diluted EPS guidance is now over $17.90 for fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Guidance remains at or below $17.90 without an increase.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for COR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MCK, CAH, and HSIC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting COR and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If COR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for COR and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If COR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like MCK, CAH, and HSIC start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping COR and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-152d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 15, 2026, Cencora, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Silvana Battaglia will retire as Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer of the Company effective July 12, 2026. Ms. Battaglia will serve in an advisory capacity through the end of 2026. Ms. Battaglia’s decision to retire from her position was not the result of a disa…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.