Reading BMY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BMY free→Reading BMY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BMY free→NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and the company is capital-friendly in its approach. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop presents a headwind, with BMY compared to sector peers as above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $56.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $56 BMY trades at 11× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $65 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $54–$75. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 13% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.83x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.61 → $1.61 (+0.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 22 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 34% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$97.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$245.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,206.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'moderate' to 'low'.
As of June 15, 2026, risk fell, changing from a moderate to a low label. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, indicating ongoing challenges in the environment. The valuation is described as fair, suggesting it is priced roughly in line with peer multiples.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue guidance shows the company is growing. This gives investors confidence in its finances.
Confirms:Management confirms Q2 2026 revenue guidance of $11.5 billion or more.
Disproves:Management cuts Q2 2026 revenue guidance to under $11.5 billion.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BMY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Earnings Press Release”) on its website at www.bms.com announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the Earnings Press Release is furnished pursuant to this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$54.00 – $75.00 (median $70.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-04-08
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BMY Bristol Myers Squibb | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | fair | low |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Bristol Myers Squibb is reaffirming its 2026 financial guidance with revenues and EPS trending toward the upper end of the provided ranges.
Bristol Myers Squibb aims to maintain its gross margin guidance of approximately 69% to 70% for 2026.
Why it matters: Maintaining gross margin is key for profitability. A drop could signal deeper issues in cost management.
Confirms:Gross margin remains at or above 70% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Gross margin falls below 68% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Good trial results may lead to a new treatment for multiple myeloma. This could increase future revenue.
Confirms:Iberdomide shows a big boost in progression-free survival in the next trial.
Disproves:Iberdomide fails to meet its primary endpoint in the trial.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Earnings Press Release”) on its website at www.bms.com announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 and full year of 2025. A copy of the Earnings Press Release is furnished pursuant to this
Other Events. Indenture On November 10, 2025, BMS Ireland Capital Funding Designated Activity Company (the “Issuer”), a designated activity company incorporated under the laws of Ireland and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (the “Company”), completed the public offering (the “Offering”) of (i) €750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 2.973% Notes due 2030 (the “2030 Notes”), (ii) €1,150,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 3.363% Notes due 2033 (the “2033 Notes”),…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 30, 2025, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Earnings Press Release”) on its website at www.bms.com announcing its financial results for the third quarter of 2025. A copy of the Earnings Press Release is furnished pursuant to this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 31, 2025, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Earnings Press Release”) on its website at www.bms.com announcing its financial results for the second quarter of 2025. A copy of the Earnings Press Release is furnished pursuant to this